Recent Articles
China: It’s About Hu not Yuan
Marc Chandler is the Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. The Russian despot Vladimir Lenin was a big fan of Frederick Taylor. Taylor’s time and motion studies revolutionized the work process by boosting output, albeit often at the cost of worker dehumanization. Taylorism is not about capitalism per se, it is about
More on China, Trade and Protectionism
I have been very hawkish on protectionist rhetoric in the past, going so far as to call it the major risk to continued economic growth. However, I was on BNN’s Headline show at lunchtime yesterday with Stacy-Marie Ishmael of FT Alphaville. At one point, the presenter Paul Waldie asked me about China and trade. In
On China, Protectionism and Trade and Other Links
Must-read: On China, Trade and Protectionism (more on this in the next post) FT.com – China export surge stirs US anger The Usual Fare FT.com – Gillian Tett – Europe’s antipathy to stress tests is well founded EconomPic: Retail Sales Fall, But Not as Bad as Reported Economy surpasses estimate, grows 5% | The Japan
The Price Of Power
Hell, it seems, knows no fury like the financial markets being told you are about to become the next Greece. The poor Vice President of the election-winning Fidesz party, Lajos Kosa, had no idea what was in store for him when he calmly announced to a group of astonished journalists that Hungary was in the
Is High and Increasing Government Debt to GDP a Sign of Malinvestment?
This is a question I have been struggling with since the sovereign debt crisis began. So let me run a little of it by you. This may be half-baked but I would love some comments. In a perfect world, we would have full employment and resources allocated efficiently in society. In that world, my assumption
Shockingly Weak Retail Sales–Risk Taken Off
The unexpectedly large drop in US May retail sales has perversely boost the dollar in early North American trading as risk is taken back off. The 1.2% drop is the largest fall since late Q3 09. The slight upward revision tot he April series (0.6% from 0.4%) is not enough to blunt the negative implications.
Correction or Consolidation?
Highlights The US dollar is mixed in choppy trading as yesterday’s sharp moves are consolidated. The shallowness of the euro’s pullback suggests continued position squaring may be taking place. Some short-term momentum players may be playing from the long side, and there is talk of short dated euro calls being bought. Sterling is underperforming following
Comstock: The Dire Outlook For Housing
The following is the weekly commentary from Comstock Partners, which makes the point that housing has not turned the corner decisively and this is at odds with even the recent S&P bottom of 1040. While the market has been focused on the Euro, China and the BP oil spill, the impending second wave of decline
Taleb: Debt Problems Are Worse Now Than in 2008
Nassim Taleb speaks to the issue I have been addressing here for two years, namely that the problem with our financial system is debt. There is too much of it. And all the stimulus in the world won’t solve that problem. The debtors either have to pay the debt off or default. Until they do,
Forexblog – Q&A on Macroeonomics, FX and all the Rest of It
I was recently contacted by Adam Kritzer who is a lead editor on Forexblog which is arguably the best one stop resource for people interested in FX (trading) and the importance of foreign exchange in general. He asked me whether I would answer some questions about macroeconomics and FX markets. You can see his questions
Demographics and the Macroeconomic Environment
Actually, our tussle hasn’t only been with the research institutes, and the bank analysts, from time to time we have also engaged with some of the better known cases of mainstream journalism, as, for example in the case of The Economist, and in particular their Central and Eastern Europe correspondent. This exchange of views (which
Markets Without Guardrails
Frederick Sheehan is the author of Panderer to Power: The Untold Story of How Alan Greenspan Enriched Wall Street and Left a Legacy of Recession (McGraw-Hill, 2009). Two significant changes are pushing markets towards a shakeout. First, the bond markets are showing strains. For instance, both investment-grade and junk-rated companies are finding it more difficult