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Video: Quantitative Easing Revisited

Edward Harrison — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 22:38:03 +0000

Deficit fatigue has set in as large scale deficit spending has become politically unacceptable. Austerity is now in. This has caused a recession throughout Europe and weakened the US. To counteract this fiscal retrenchment, monetary authorities are 'printing' as much money as they can reasonably get away with. QE is the policy choice du jour and Omid Malekan has a colorful take on what it means. Take a look

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Bernanke ‘Irresponsible’ to Compare US to Greece

Edward Harrison — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 19:39:36 +0000

That's the headline from my latest talk on RT's Alyona Show. Before I send you to the clip, let me explain my thinking because I don't think I was really clear in the video

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Rickards on Iran and QE3

Edward Harrison — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 18:47:20 +0000

Jim Rickards, author of Currency Wars, was on capital Account last night and he thinks both QE3 and war with Iran are distinct possibilities. Take a look

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Majors Trading Flat ahead of the ECB

BBH — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 12:35:29 +0000

The dollar is paring back some of its recent losses, with currencies mostly range bound, ahead of the ECB. The EuroStoxx 600 is currently up 0.25%, with bank shares up 0.8%; S&P 500 futures are essentially flat. Euro zone sovereign 10-year yields are mixed; Portuguese 10-year down 17bps, Spanish 10-year up 7bps

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News Links: Jeremy Grantham’s investing strategies for 2012

Edward Harrison — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 05:30:49 +0000

Jeremy Grantham’s investing strategies for 2012 – CBS News "Quality gave back a bit of its outperformance [in the fourth] quarter, but the game is in the early innings still," GMO says in its latest report. "High quality stocks still trade at attractive levels, and the general defensive posture of quality still remains appealing given

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Richard Nixon: 1971 Annual Message to the Congress on the State of the Union

Edward Harrison — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 14:24:50 +0000

I have highlighted some of the state of the union addresses by Herbert Hoover in the past because I see the Great depression as a time with certain parallels to the present economic hardship. Let's look at the 1970s instead now. Here's Richard Nixon from 1971, with what was considered a conservative agenda in 1971 based on balancing the federal budget and rolling back centralised governance. However, regarding details, Nixon proposes small government ideas on welfare reform and big government ideas in almost all other aspects of his State of the Union Address. I have bolded what I consider the most important parts

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William K. Black explains control fraud at length

Edward Harrison — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 13:30:00 +0000

This is a good and in-depth interview with Bill Black conducted by George Mason economics professor Russ Roberts. I highly recommend your listening to it

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Dollar Mostly Softer as Greek Deal Inches Closer

BBH — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 12:43:31 +0000

The dollar is extending its recent losses on hopes that Greece is inching closer to a deal that would ensure the next bailout payment, though the major currencies remain in relatively tight ranges

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News Links: Missouri Attorney General Files Criminal Lawsuit on Robosigning

Edward Harrison — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 05:30:53 +0000

Mirabile Dictu! Missouri Attorney General Files Criminal Lawsuit on Robosigning « naked capitalism What is striking about the indictment by a Missouri grand jury is that the Missouri AG Chris Koster has decided to challenge the banks’ party line that robosigning and related abuses were mere "paperwork problems." He’s called robosiging what it is: forgery.

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Chart of the day: 2012 sovereign risk compression

Global Macro Monitor — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 02:00:35 +0000

Great data from Bespoke. Looks like Portugal is the odd man out as the only government in which its CDS spreads have widened this year

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Has the Euro Broken Out?

Marc Chandler — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 01:30:06 +0000

Given market positioning and the anticipated long-term repo operation at the end of the month, it is tempting to see this move above $1.3250 as a breakout. Is it a breakout

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The Elephant in the Room Is Spain, Not Italy

Marshall Auerback — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 21:30:47 +0000

The decision for Europe’s bosses is this: they must ultimately confront the consequences of their policy choices. They can destroy the eurozone by continuing with the same failed mix of policies or by salvaging it by adding what has been missing from the outset: a mechanism for shifting surpluses to the deficit regions in the form of productive investments (as opposed to handouts or loans)

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The Fed Resumes “Printing”

Casey Research — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 21:00:14 +0000

One conclusion from the Fed's actions is that it doesn't care as much about its inflation target as it does about improving the unemployment rate. Thus, it will err on the side of letting inflation rise, if it would improve unemployment. But holding rates too low too long fueled the housing bubble. Repeating the same game will have consequences of malinvestment in the form of new bubbles in the economy. The Fed hopes to restore employment before the negative consequences of loose monetary policy show up

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Intervention Risks Rise In Latin America

Win Thin — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 20:30:50 +0000

FX intervention is certainly in the air this week for Latin America. Brazil stands out as the most aggressive, of course, as the central bank intervened in the forward market Friday and in the spot market Monday

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Banks Paying Cash to Homeowners to Avoid Foreclosures

Edward Harrison — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 15:30:50 +0000

Here's the latest story that's been getting buzz around the internet: banks are trying to get troubled mortgages off their books without having to go through costly foreclosure processes and they are offering homeowners cash incentives to do so

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Greek protests turn very anti-Germany

Edward Harrison — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 15:05:48 +0000

This is how it's going down in Greece right now. The sentiment is very Anti-German on the eve of the austerity/bailout decision. The debt haircut and writedowns coming of upwards of 50% is a default in everything but name. Technical default is a real possibility as well

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Use of lower-rated debt in repos has returned to pre-crisis levels

Guest Author — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 14:51:57 +0000

Looks like there’s a storm brewing in the U.S. repo markets. It figures: profit-center banks have every motivation to stay one step ahead of the regs and the pols. Since the gamekeepers have now gotten around to looking at proprietary trading and bringing derivatives onto exchanges, you can almost bet your first-born that the next crisis will be in neither one of these areas but someplace else entirely different

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[Premium] Dow Transports lagging is a warning sign

Edward Harrison — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 13:00:56 +0000

There are still a lot of Dow Theory followers out there even after over 100 years. And the divergence between a bullish DJIA headline number and the lagging Dow Transports is bearish from a technical perspective

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Tuesday’s Surprises from Australia and Japan

BBH — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 12:30:27 +0000

The dollar is mixed against the majors and EMs but largely remains confined to recent ranges. The EuroStoxx 600 slid for a second straight day, currently down 0.5%; MSCI Asia index holds recent highs. Demand in Greek bill sale eased slightly and refinancing costs moved higher; Portugal’s 10-year up 22bp

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News Links: Greek Default: Why Now May Be Best Time to Do It

Edward Harrison — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 05:30:54 +0000

Greek Default: Why Now May Be Best Time to Do It – US Business News Blog – CNBC Last week in general gave life to the recovery theme, with 15 of 23 indicators beating expectations and causing some economists to raise their growth outlook for the full year. So, with sentiment running so garishly positive,

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Quick note on updates at Credit Writedowns

Edward Harrison — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 03:30:07 +0000

I have instituted a few changes at Credit Writedowns to which I wanted to alert readers. The changes were mostly for members but they affect all readers. I had heard from a few member readers that it wasn't clear where member content resides as most of it is integrated into the normal post stream. So I have made a number of changes in order to make the member content much more recognizable as members-only content

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[Premium] Ireland’s Private Debt Problem

Edward Harrison — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 03:00:59 +0000

You saw the chart about two weeks ago on Developed economies’ debt levels by sector. Different economies have different debt problems. A few like Greece have public sector debt woes. And this is the sort of problem that forces a default only when the country is a currency user (and not a monopoly issuer of currency) as Japan has demonstrated. Mostly, however, the problem is in the private sector, where all of the indebted parties are currency users

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Global Manufacturing Steadies as She Goes, or Does She?

Edward Hugh — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 21:00:02 +0000

The year got off on a much better foot than might have been expected, at least as far as global manufacturing is concerned. So the fall in global manufacturing has flattened out, even though the bounce back has more of a dead cat look about it than anything else. As usual in recent months the report was very much a mixed bag

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[Premium] Growth momentum shift to Emerging Markets continues

Edward Harrison — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 18:00:38 +0000

Two weeks ago I highlighted the fact that Indonesia has re-attained an investment grade rating, continuing the upward path it has been on since the Asian crisis derailed the Asian growth story 15 years ago. Indeed, we should expect emerging markets, and Asian emerging markets in particular to outperform developed economies

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An Update on Italian Sovereign Outperformance

Marc Chandler — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 17:40:32 +0000

Ahead of the next LTRO at the end of the month, Spanish and Italian bonds may begin consolidating after the large moves seen over the past month. The scope for Italian out performance in the month ahead appears somewhat more limited than over the past month. Indeed, the 5.5% yield level on the Italy's 10-year generic bond may prove a bit sticky. It also corresponds to trend line on the weekly charts, drawn off the yield low of 3.7% in mid-Oct 2010. Spain's 10-year yield decline is slowing as it slips through the 5% threshold

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The Problem with Success

Marc Chandler — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 15:00:00 +0000

Cash accounts for almost 6% of all corporate assets and the highest in sixty years. This increase is a result of a number of factors. Record profits give businesses the wherewithal. But corporations are not rewarded for the cash holdings. Moreover, the cash is held in such instruments as money market funds, commercial paper and bank deposits

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[PREMIUM]: 2012 an inflection point toward S&P500 margin compression

Edward Harrison — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 13:36:04 +0000

What I have been saying throughout 2011 is that margin compression is going to happen no matter what. The cuts have been made and so margins cannot grow any higher from cuts. It has to come from operating leverage that increases as a result of revenue growth

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Is US democracy being bought and sold?

Edward Harrison — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 13:05:03 +0000

The answer is yes. video below

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Euro Dragged Lower on Greece Uncertainty

BBH — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 12:35:57 +0000

The dollar looks set to begin the week higher against the majors and EMs over lack of progress in Greece. European stocks are down 0.6%, with the EuroStoxx 600 trimming its 6-month high; EZ banks down 1.3%. German manufacturing orders higher in December; soft Australian retail sales support further RBA cuts

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News Links 02/04/2012

Edward Harrison — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 05:30:46 +0000

Schneiderman Files Civil Fraud Lawsuit Against Three Major Banks for Use of MERS « naked capitalism New York filed a lawsuit against various units of JP Morgan, Bank of America, Wells, MERSCORP and MERS over their use of MERS in foreclosures. This civil suit alleges that the use of MERS has “resulted in a wide

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Jobs data highlight huge potential for capital loss in Treasuries

Marshall Auerback — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 20:45:36 +0000

I have been making a big deal about strength in the household series of employment and the trend in IUCs. These are statistical series that do not get revised out of recognition. They often tell the tale at turning points. Given that past household survey employment and IUC trends have persisted, the current bond market rally will be even more insane and the stock market will probably continue to work higher, even though the favorable seasonable window has closed. I expect the recent trend of large outflows from stocks to bonds over the last year (and last five years) to be reversed in 2012. Not only are interest rates at generational lows but many high-quality companies are yielding (at 2.5% or even better) well above the yield on the 10-year U.S. note

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El-Erian on jobs: Headline bullish but structural issues remain

Edward Harrison — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 19:14:10 +0000

Bloomberg Television has another video with PIMCO head Mohamed El-Erian, this time on the jobs number. This one number has the potential to set the tone for the short-term because it was so far ahead of consensus estimates. El-Erian cautions about getting to far into the risk-on trade because of the number though as the US still has structural issues. I would add that it is a long way to November and this is just one number. Let's see how the picture develops

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Chart of the day: Labor force participation rate at 30-year low

Edward Harrison — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 17:40:11 +0000

The jobs data were the best we have seen in a long time and well above expectations. This and the first upward revisions to the annual revisions were a pleasant surprise. While a lot of people are in disbelief because of a present bearish bias, you have to take the numbers for what they are and they are bullish. I still feel that the US economy is at stall speed and expect a second recession by the end of 2013 but I am prepared to upgrade my assessment based on how things proceed. That said, this is just one month's data in a notoriously noisy month for employment data (See the premium post Jobless claims jump may be seasonality)

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The Unlikely Bull Market

Niels Jensen — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 16:30:46 +0000

This is not the time to be fully invested but neither is it the time to be side lined. We are in a nervous market where great opportunities present themselves at regular intervals. We recommend holding 25-50% in cash or cash like instruments (depending on your risk profile) which can be deployed at short notice when those opportunities arise

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[PREMIUM] If you were looking for a reason to be bullish, this jobs report is it

Edward Harrison — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 13:34:46 +0000

The jobs report has just come out and the numbers are amazingly bullish. This article for subscribed members looks at what the report means.

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[PREMIUM] If you were looking for a reason to be bullish, this jobs report is it originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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