Footnote 2011: Being cautiously optimistic was right

In January, I wrote my prognosis for 2011. The title was “Cautiously Optimistic Into 2011″. I intend to write another post like this early in 2012 with asset allocation and market calls for the new newsletter. But right now I just want to review the basic outlook I presented.

I had seven major conclusions. Here’s what I said and how well it has stacked up

Credit Writedowns Weekly Report, Vol 1 Issue 2: Solutions in Europe?

Below are the five ways now being discussed to tackle the euro zone sovereign debt crisis. I should say that overall, it is still unclear how far along European leaders are in defining a mutually agreeable outcome. Just this morning, I have seen evidence that France and Germany are still far apart on agreeing the details of the plan they plan to bring forward. meanwhile the euro zone finance ministers want to get the IMF involved. frankly, this thing is all over the shop and we won’t know what will happen until right before it does. My money is still on a German-style fiscal integration which would include EU oversight and austerity to be followed by a stronger ECB role and (maybe) Eurobonds down the line. Angela Merkel is still acting as if she is against Eurobonds but we know they have not been ruled out after fiscal integration since even Juergen Stark has said so

Credit Writedowns Weekly Report, Vol 1 Issue 1: European and US Sovereign Debt

With the fundraiser week winding down, I am going to start making a few changes now. One thing we probably need is a synopsis of the past week’s posts in order to tie the week’s events together thematically. I will make this synopsis using the most read and tweeted posts plus the ones I think are most relevant to what’s actually happening in global markets and the economy.

This week there is a ton of stuff here. So, here we go with the weekly report volume 1, issue

What has led Ireland to the brink of collapse?

A comprehensive outline of the Irish situation and with a retrospective on the steps leading us to the brink

This Week’s Most Popular Posts: 2010-11-21

Mr. Obama’s Most Recent "2%" Sellout is his Worst Yet Michael Hudson on how President Obama’s economic policy has not benefitted ordinary Americans. On The Alleged Irish Bank Deposit Flight My view on why the incipient Irish bank run would mean a bailout was inevitable With Ireland on the brink, the 1931 Credit Anstalt talk

This Week’s Most Popular Posts: 2010-11-13

Since I failed to put out a weekly update last week, this week’s weekly will contain the most popular posts over the last two weeks. Jeremy Grantham has ‘already started to sell’ Great 30-minute CNBC interview with Jeremy Grantham in which we hear his views on monetary and fiscal policy in addition to asset allocation

This Week’s Most Popular Posts

Real Estate Investors or Speculators?: Casey Research’s thoughts on risk management amongst real estate investors makes one wonder how much real estate activity is purely speculative. The Problem With QE2: Comstock Partners explains why QE2 will not be successful in increasing economic output in the face of a secular trend toward deleveraging. Graph of the

This Week’s Most Popular Posts: 2010-10-23

We had a lot of good posts at Credit Writedowns this past week. Below is a list of the most-read. Enjoy. Chile: "We are very much concerned about what’s happening with our currency": Comments by Chile’s central bank vice-governor demonstrate that the so-called ‘currency war’ is still very much an issue. Chile is concerned that

This Week’s Most Popular Posts: 2010-10-16

Krugman: We Need $8-10 Trillion Worth of Quantitative Easing: Paul Krugman says the Fed would have to print multiple trillions of dollars to close the output gap. That’s not going to happen. The implication is that money printing is all that is left as stimulus because fiscal policy, a more effective means of closing an

This Week’s Most Popular Posts: 2010-10-09

How a financial crisis morphs into a currency war: A history of the crisis to date and how it has led to the escalating rhetoric of a so-called currency war. Bubble Trouble In Finland?: Edward Hugh analyses the above-trend house price appreciation in Scandinavia, Finland in particular. First the rate reductions, then money printing, then

This Week’s Most Popular Posts

This week’s posts pointed to commentary from some of the top analysts: Meredith Whitney, Hugh Hendry, Andy Xie, David Tepper, and David Rosenberg. Of note was the situation in Ireland and the cabinet shuffle in the Obama White House. A lot more in the archives here. Meredith Whitney: Next Shoe to Drop Is Municipal Bonds:

This Week’s Most Popular Posts: 2010-09-27

The Credit Writedowns Interview with President Bill Clinton: Report on a blogger meeting with former President Bill Clinton and what his views say about the agenda for Democrats and the Obama Administration. Hugh Hendry interview on the BBC: Twenty minutes with the outspoken London-based but Scottish-born Hedge Fund manager Hugh Hendry. Entertaining as usual. In