Category: Housing
US housing starts up 40% in last year but still half of 50-year average
Housing starts in the US were up today. The Wall Street Journal writes that number came in at 717,000, up from a low of 478,000 in April
The Denial on Housing in Spain
This post highlights a brilliant piece of journalism by Bloomberg reporters Sharon Smyth, Neil Callanan and Dara Doyle. The story takes us to Spain and Ireland and the former’s denial with regards its housing market. A passage that was particularly staggering was the comments by Miguel Angel Garcia Nieto, mayor of Avila (a town showcased in the article), that this is just an interim soft spot as a result of the crisis and that oversupply and overcapacity will eventually be absorbed. Hope, as they say, springs eternal
Australian House Prices down 10% from Peak
Australian house prices peaked in June 2010. The motive force behind Australia’s bubble was the same as in the USA and Japan: accelerating debt drove rising house prices during the boom. Now in both those countries, decelerating debt is driving house prices down. The same pattern applies in Australia
Bank of Canada: House price-to-income ratio outstrips norm by 35%
I have noted a number of times in the past that household debt levels in Canada have reached worrying levels. I am not the only one on to this. Canadian central bank head Mark Carney was in the news yesterday sounding the alarm on this as well. Mark Carney noted that Canadian household debt is being driven by a rise in house prices that has caused the house price/income ratio to now be 35% above the norm in Canada
The growing optimism on housing is not justified
The bullish argument that houses are now generally affordable also does not hold up on closer examination. As we have repeated ad infinitum the average household has too much debt and is in the midst of deleveraging rather than taking on more debt. Furthermore, households, on average, do not have enough cash for a down payment or a high enough credit score to qualify for the more stringent credit standards put into effect following the credit crisis. Neither do they have enough income
Shiller: Real Chance of Japan-like Housing Slump in US
Shiller says the shift toward renting and city living could mean “that we will never in our lifetime see a rebound in these prices in the suburbs.” Watch the video
Government’s role in the subprime crisis
Could a new paper published by researchers from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis finally answer the question of whether affordable housing laws caused the subprime crisis? Yes
Chris Whalen has serious questions about the Fed’s stress tests
I love Chris Whalen’s bank industry analysis. I featured his CNBC commentary yesterday. Today is his commentary from last night’s Capital Account
Buy or rent as rents rise and house prices fall?
This is a good segment from CNBC on the dichotomy we see in the housing market of still falling house prices and rising rents. Is the rise in rents a foreshadowing of house prices stabilising? Take a look
Anecdotes of Mortgage Fraud
Appraisers are pursuing class action suits against banks, asserting they were blacklisted if they refused to engage in fraudulent appraisals. The problem is that if they win, they are then subject to suit by homeowners (who are losing their homes) since they overpaid, and got mortgage loans that were far too high relative to “fundamentals”
Fannie Putting Dubious Loans Back to BofA, So BofA Will Stick Them to Freddie Instead
It looks like someone at Fannie woke up and realized that any case of a guarantor voiding a policy was prima facie evidence that BofA had breached a rep and warranty about loan quality. Look at the examples: inflated appraisals and incomes
The current housing bust is much worse than the Great Depression
Great chart from the recently released Economic Report of the President. We suspect the Great Depression housing bust didn’t have the government props to soften the blow as we do today, which, therefore, on a relative basis, makes the current bust much worse. The prior conditions to the current bust must have been much worse than those before the Great Depression