John Mauldin: 2010 Forecast: The Year of Uncertainty

This is the latest in a series of forecast posts. Notably, there has been Richard Bernstein, Saxo Bank and Byron Wien. The Pragmatic Capitalist has The Ultimate Guide to 2010 Investment Predictions and Outlooks, if you are interested in more. In this post, the narratives on behavioral psychology are especially good. Also see similar narratives

Byron Wien: Ten Surprises for 2007 and 2008

Given the fact that I have just finished writing two articles on Wien’s predictions for 2010, I thought it relevant to look back at the last three years of Wien’s surprises to just before the housing crisis.  I posted the 2009 predictions last year. The post is here.  Wien calls these events that he gives

More on Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2010

Byron Wien was amazingly accurate last year in his economic predictions even though his annual list is an attempt to build a non-consensus list of likely outlier events. So, I was eager to see Byron Wien’s 2010 surprises, which were unveiled earlier today. Please read his list in the previous link as background. Reviewing 2009

Byron Wien: Ten Surprises for 2010

I will have some commentary on this in a future post or an updated version of this one. Update 1600 ET: you can see my commentary in the next post here. The Surprises of 2010 The United States economy grows at a stronger than expected 5% real rate during the year and the unemployment level

Think outside the box: ten outrageous predictions for 2010

Just like last year, I am going to present the list of ten outrageous predictions from Denmark’s Saxo Bank.  When I presented the list in 2008, I gave the following disclaimer: Their list is outlandish — and I’ll get to it in a moment. But, first, I want to say these predictions serve a very

Richard Bernstein: Ten predictions for 2010

So, it’s that time of year again when people make their year-end predictions. I’ll be running my own and critiquing my performance from last year.  Here are former bear now bull Richard Bernstein’s ten predictions for 2010.  There is a clip at the bottom from CNBC as well. Before you pillory Bernstein for going from

Think outside the box: ten outrageous predictions for 2009

Update: 3 Apr 2009: I have been getting more positive about the possibility of a cyclical upturn before 2009 is over (what I like to call a fake recovery). Meanwhile, the punderati are seeing black when they should be seeing shades of grey. As a result, I wanted to re-post this article as a reminder to all of you and to myself of the perils of becoming wedded to a certain ideological bias.



Also see the following article on the site Overcoming Bias.



Here’s the original post:



For a long time Byron Wien of Morgan Stanley used to have his “Ten Surprises for” whatever year we were about to enter. The predictions were sometimes head-scratchers and they were definitely ‘out there.’ Most of the time, these predictions ended up being wrong. Now, Saxobank has taken over from Morgan Stanley in this department. Their list is outlandish — and I’ll get to it in a moment. But, first, I want to say these predictions serve a very useful purpose. It’s called thinking outside the box

Poll: Is this a recession or a depression?

On February 6th, I started a poll asking whether the global economy was experiencing a recession or a depression. In the interim, I have tried to stay neutral on the issue.

Now it is time to close out the poll. Below you can add your vote. I will release the final results tomorrow.

[poll id=”2″

The bullish argument for the global economy

With a name like “Credit Writedowns,” this site is obviously not preternaturally given to the wildly optimistic scenario. In fact, my operating assumption is to hope for the best, but plan for the worst and expect something in between. Indeed, in an economic downturn, one needs to be more fixated on planning for the worst than hoping for the best. Nevertheless, as with the last post on China, I want to present the ‘bullish’ scenario to paint a fuller picture of the potential outcomes for the global economy

Who is the next Iceland?

The question on everyone’s mind in the emerging markets is who will blow up next. Arnab Das of Dresdner Kleinwort Benson takes a stab at answering that question. He targets the Baltics as the problem children and sees current account surplus nations in Asia as lest vulnerable. He also discusses his views on Russia.

Below is the video with him on CNBC giving forth his view

Austrian banks have emerging-market financial exposure that is 70% of GDP

You probably know that I am gearing up for some serious writedowns in Eastern Europe because I see these countries as having external imbalances which will have to be corrected as the economy softens. In previous posts, I had mentioned that there was considerable exposure to Eastern Europe in Austria, Sweden, Denmark ad Germany in particular. Austria is the worst of the lot. Today, I happened upon an article and a quote which puts the Austrian exposure into context

Byron Wien: Ten Surprises for 2009

As the New Year unfolds, it is time for predictions. I have done my part, giving a full account of where I see things headed in 2009 in my post “Top ten predictions for the 2009 global economy” and where I want to see them headed in 2009 in my post “Top ten economic wishes for 2009.” I have also mentioned Byron Wien in passing several times because he has done this sort of thing ever year for the past 24 years, first at Morgan Stanley at now at Pequot Capital. Well, his list for 2009 is now out and I want to show it to you – along with my usual commentary (in parenthesis) of course!

Enjoy