Category: Forecasts
Bullish on stocks and America: Richard Bernstein’s Eleven Predictions for 2011
This one from the Former Merrill Lynch Chief Investment Strategist Bernstein seems to be making the rounds. Hat tip Barry Ritholtz. Here’s where I first noted that Richard Bernstein had turned bullish: Bernstein added that one wants to load up on risk now if one believes in the recovery. Junky names are the best as
Demographic Time Bombs – They May Not be What You Think
Long term (over 20-30 years) demographics will favor the U.S. over Germany and China in international trade
Less Policy Advocacy and More Policy Forecasting at Credit Writedowns
Blogs in the econoblogosphere are heavy on economic policy advocacy. Ever since the heyday of the US and European housing bubble, the majority of bloggers in the space who are unaffiliated with media sources have been recommending policy makers take specific courses of action to mitigate downside risk. That is the bread and butter of
Nouriel Roubini’s Talk at Google’s Zeitgeistminds
Chrystia Freeland introduces Dr. Roubini, reminding him that he is still known as Dr. Doom. She quips he should wear the name with pride because he was "one of the very few economists who was actually right about the crisis." This reminds me of Nassim Taleb who said recently that we shouldn’t listen to anything
David Tice Says Double-Dip Recession ‘In the Cards’ for U.S.
David Tice, chief portfolio strategist for bear markets at Federated Investors Inc, talks about the outlook for the U.S. economy. He sees a double dip coming and argues against stimulus to prevent it, saying policy makers shouldn’t act as “Good Time Charlie” preventing the deleveraging of U.S. households
ECRI Weekly Leading Index Growth Lowest In 13 Months
A measure of future economic growth fell slightly in the latest week, while its annualized growth rate continued to decline, indicating the economy is about to slow, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index slipped to 122.2 in the week
John Mauldin: 2010 Forecast: The Year of Uncertainty
This is the latest in a series of forecast posts. Notably, there has been Richard Bernstein, Saxo Bank and Byron Wien. The Pragmatic Capitalist has The Ultimate Guide to 2010 Investment Predictions and Outlooks, if you are interested in more. In this post, the narratives on behavioral psychology are especially good. Also see similar narratives
Byron Wien: Ten Surprises for 2007 and 2008
Given the fact that I have just finished writing two articles on Wien’s predictions for 2010, I thought it relevant to look back at the last three years of Wien’s surprises to just before the housing crisis. I posted the 2009 predictions last year. The post is here. Wien calls these events that he gives
More on Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2010
Byron Wien was amazingly accurate last year in his economic predictions even though his annual list is an attempt to build a non-consensus list of likely outlier events. So, I was eager to see Byron Wien’s 2010 surprises, which were unveiled earlier today. Please read his list in the previous link as background. Reviewing 2009
Byron Wien: Ten Surprises for 2010
I will have some commentary on this in a future post or an updated version of this one. Update 1600 ET: you can see my commentary in the next post here. The Surprises of 2010 The United States economy grows at a stronger than expected 5% real rate during the year and the unemployment level
Think outside the box: ten outrageous predictions for 2010
Just like last year, I am going to present the list of ten outrageous predictions from Denmark’s Saxo Bank. When I presented the list in 2008, I gave the following disclaimer: Their list is outlandish — and I’ll get to it in a moment. But, first, I want to say these predictions serve a very
Richard Bernstein: Ten predictions for 2010
So, it’s that time of year again when people make their year-end predictions. I’ll be running my own and critiquing my performance from last year. Here are former bear now bull Richard Bernstein’s ten predictions for 2010. There is a clip at the bottom from CNBC as well. Before you pillory Bernstein for going from