Category: Forecasts
Economic Themes at the Start of 2011
BBH’s currency strategy team reviews the major economic issues in the four investing regions of note: the US, Europe, China and other Emerging Markets. In the US growth is accelerating. In Europe, the economy struggles with a sovereign debt crisis. In China growth is moderating. And in the Emerging markets, officials wrestle with capital inflows from abroad
Saxo Bank: ten outrageous predictions for 2011
This is the third year I have featured the Danish Saxo Bank’s outrageous predictions list. They are meant to be true outliers and not actual predictions, so don’t expect them to hit 10 for 10 or even 7 for 10. The point of the list is to help people think about outlier scenarios and what
Random Shots – 2011 Musings Edition
by Claus Vistesen (work in progress, but I thought that I would publish it thus far, stay tuned for more additions) I did have some plans to do a series of post to give a brief overview of my main macro and trade themes for 2011, but time has, not surprisingly, caught up with me.
Reading the Tea Leaves
by Annaly Capital Management Today’s “must read” comes courtesy of Professor Jeremy Siegel of Wharton Business School and “Stocks For the Long Run” fame. His Wall Street Journal op-ed, titled “The Fed’s Policy Is Working,” can be read online with a subscription. The piece can be summarized in the following quote: “The recent surge in
Rosenberg: Ten Investment Themes for 2011
The following is an excerpt from David Rosenberg’s recent Lunch with Dave daily research piece highlighting Ten Themes for 2011. These themes are quite a bit different than the ones we highlighted just days ago from former colleague Richard Bernstein – much more cautious on the near-term future
In Bullish Mode
I was on BNN this past Friday talking to Howard Green about China, banks and GE. My comments were pretty near-term bullish on the whole regarding Chinese growth, bank dividends, and bank reforms. The longer-term is another issue. Here’s what I see happening. The Chinese economy, like the two other big EM economies in Brazil
Bullish on stocks and America: Richard Bernstein’s Eleven Predictions for 2011
This one from the Former Merrill Lynch Chief Investment Strategist Bernstein seems to be making the rounds. Hat tip Barry Ritholtz. Here’s where I first noted that Richard Bernstein had turned bullish: Bernstein added that one wants to load up on risk now if one believes in the recovery. Junky names are the best as
Demographic Time Bombs – They May Not be What You Think
Long term (over 20-30 years) demographics will favor the U.S. over Germany and China in international trade
Less Policy Advocacy and More Policy Forecasting at Credit Writedowns
Blogs in the econoblogosphere are heavy on economic policy advocacy. Ever since the heyday of the US and European housing bubble, the majority of bloggers in the space who are unaffiliated with media sources have been recommending policy makers take specific courses of action to mitigate downside risk. That is the bread and butter of
Nouriel Roubini’s Talk at Google’s Zeitgeistminds
Chrystia Freeland introduces Dr. Roubini, reminding him that he is still known as Dr. Doom. She quips he should wear the name with pride because he was "one of the very few economists who was actually right about the crisis." This reminds me of Nassim Taleb who said recently that we shouldn’t listen to anything
David Tice Says Double-Dip Recession ‘In the Cards’ for U.S.
David Tice, chief portfolio strategist for bear markets at Federated Investors Inc, talks about the outlook for the U.S. economy. He sees a double dip coming and argues against stimulus to prevent it, saying policy makers shouldn’t act as “Good Time Charlie” preventing the deleveraging of U.S. households
ECRI Weekly Leading Index Growth Lowest In 13 Months
A measure of future economic growth fell slightly in the latest week, while its annualized growth rate continued to decline, indicating the economy is about to slow, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index slipped to 122.2 in the week