Is the US headed for recession?

Bottom line: I think we are in the technical recovery phase of a double dip recession that is a once in a generation period of balance sheet repair. To me, it’s a depression. Irrespective of what you call this thing we are living through, it is not good. Unemployment is sky high, wage growth is nowhere and we are still beset by crisis

It’s Going to Get Worse

ECRI has predicted a recession in the US. In the videos below, Lakshman Achuthan talks with Yahoo Finance and the Wall Street Journal about ECRI’s new recession call

Some predictions for the rest of the decade

Markets have been crazy this month, but rather than try to wade through all the news, much of which doesn’t seem to have much informational content, I thought I would duck out altogether and instead make a list of things I expect will happen over the next several years

Investing in a world of austerity

If you are an investor, businessperson or employee, what you care about is outcomes. You want to know what’s likely to happen in the economy and in the markets. That is what this site is all about. What I see says that cuts were coming. What does that mean then for the economy and markets

More cautious optimism?

Overall, I would say that the exogenous shocks have added to downside risk. I would expect economic weakness in the second half of 2011.

If economic weakness does materialize in the US, I would expect lower long-term interest rates. Many are predicting QE2 will lead to higher rates. But why would that be the case in an environment of economic weakness in which risk assets could sell off? Watch the ECRI index for signs that the economy is weakening

A few brief comments on America’s fiscal choices

The private sector (particularly the household sector) is overly indebted. The level of debt households now carry cannot be supported by income at the present levels of consumption. The natural tendency, therefore, is toward more saving and less spending in the private sector (although asset price appreciation can attenuate this through the Wealth Effect). That

Mauldin: Thinking the Unthinkable

This is the second of a two-part economic forecast by John Mauldin published on 8 Jan and 15 Jan 2011. In this issue: The Fed Adds a Third Mandate A Rational Voice in Dallas Thinking the Unthinkable The Threat of the Irish Has China Found a Miracle Business Cycle? The Fed Adds a Third Mandate

Forecast 2011: Better than Muddle Through

This is the first of a two-part economic forecast by John Mauldin published on 8 Jan and 15 Jan 2011. The second part will appear shortly. In this issue: How Did We Do on 2010? Russia and the Roots of World Inflation The US Will More than Muddle Through December Unemployment Better than Headline A

Cautiously Optimistic Into 2011

It’s high time I laid my cards on the table about 2011. I have hinted around my view in previous posts, promising to spell it out in detail. So, here it is: I am cautiously optimistic on the US and global economy for 2011. Let me explain both pieces of the puzzle – the cautious

Mark Hulbert: The Market Has Risen Every Third Year of a Presidential Cycle Since 1932

"Whatever political party holds the white house wants to get re-elected. So it’s going to do whatever it can to make the economy look good on election day" -Mark Hulbert This is how I see things as well. The question, of course, is how successful the Obama Administration will be in getting its way with

Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2011

I have just finished reviewing Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2010. Now, I present you Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2011. He is bullish again. Enjoy.   -Byron R. Wien, Vice Chairman, Blackstone Advisory Partners, today issued his list of The Ten Surprises for 2011. This is the 26th year Byron has given his predictions

Reviewing Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2010

Byron Wien had a stellar record in 2009, accurately predicting the effect of a rather robust second half recovery across a broad range of markets. However, Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2010 were well off the mark. Before we review I will repeat what I said when Wien made his predictions: 2010 list predicated on