Credit Writedowns » Forecasts

Poll: Can China avoid a hard landing?

Edward Harrison — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 21:10:21 +0000

There are a lot of different opinions on this one. What's yours

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Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2012 (short version)

Edward Harrison — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 13:54:14 +0000

Yesterday morning, I did the first weekly newsletter on my ten surprises for 2012. Here's a brief version of the list

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John Mauldin: The Matterhorn Interview

Guest Author — Mon, 02 Jan 2012 14:30:47 +0000

Investment advisor John Mauldin explains his attitude towards austerity measures; a return of the gold standard; the euro crisis; and the willingness to bailout everyone that makes capitalism and monetary systems stop working

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On the ECB’s Long-Term Refinancing Operation and 2012 macro ideas for investors

Edward Harrison — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 20:30:42 +0000

The end of year is usually a good time for markets. There was a lot of angst about the European situation a few weeks ago, but there is less of that now because we're hitting year-end (tape painting). Does that mean the credit crisis situation is stable? No, but it has stabilised somewhat. 2012 will be a different story though. I talked about the European sovereign debt crisis and my themes for 2012 with Howard Green of BNN and Ryan Avent of the Economist yesterday. The link to the video is below but let me say a bit more, particularly about today's LTRO by the ECB. I'll try to be brief

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The 2012 Blind Side: China’s Housing Bust

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 14:49:10 +0000

Foreign Affairs has just posted a must read piece, "China’s Real Estate Bubble May Have Just Popped", which will sound very familiar to Global Macro Monitor readers. We’re going to be spend a lot time over the holidays thinking how this plays out in China’s financial sector and the implications for markets

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Forecasting misconceptions and the likelihood of European financial repression

Marc Chandler — Tue, 13 Dec 2011 15:16:28 +0000

Market participants, including economists and strategists are prone to confusing what they believe should be the case with what will be the case

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Steve Keen on HARDtalk on the financial crisis and the economy

Edward Harrison — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 02:00:55 +0000

This time it's Steve Keen on the hotseat on HARDtalk. Now, Steve is one of the few economists who actually predicted the global financial crisis. But what about the possibility of another Great Depression? That possibility and how to avoid it were the topics of conversation in this 25-minute interview. Great stuff

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Running through Italian unilateral euro zone exit scenarios

Edward Harrison — Tue, 22 Nov 2011 15:15:26 +0000

A unilateral exit would be a devastating event for Italy and the euro zone. Inflation would be high but bank and national solvency issues would recede. If the exit were done under these nationalistic pre-conditions of redomination, most of the adjustment burden would fall on foreign creditors. Italy would become export competitive again and could focus on economic growth strategies instead of ones of fiscal adjustment

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Why France will be forced out of the eurozone

Edward Harrison — Tue, 22 Nov 2011 04:00:46 +0000

"Faced with a choice between permanent slump and rising debt burdens (as economic contraction and deflation leads to inexorable increases in debt), countries will elect to quit the currency union. At least that route will allow them to print money, recapitalise their banks and escape deflation. Once Spain or Italy opts for this, an unravelling of the eurozone will be unstoppable."

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What US GDP and jobless claims say about the US economy

Edward Harrison — Thu, 27 Oct 2011 13:21:23 +0000

We got two good proxies for the economic trajectory in the US this morning at 830 AM. Jobless claims were 402,000 with the 4-week moving average now settling in at 405,500. GDP rose an annualized 2.5% in the third quarter according to the government’s advanced estimate. In the second quarter, real GDP had risen 1.3%

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Felix Zulauf says the die is cast. Is it?

Edward Harrison — Tue, 25 Oct 2011 21:30:31 +0000

I was just looking at Barry Ritholtz’s synopsis of Felix Zulauf’s observations from an in-office interview Barry had with him and I have to say I agree with the man 100%. But is the die cast? Are we headed into something much worse

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Is it Over Yet?

Claus Vistesen — Sun, 16 Oct 2011 23:26:27 +0000

It was telling that, just as the ECRI and other notable research outfits decided to push the recession button on the US economy, the data flow became notably more positive. This could be a sign of the times, that the cycle is just too volatile for even capable analysts to call or it could simply be a blip in otherwise fundamental economic weakness that is here to stay for now. I have been working with and building economic models for a while and all I can say is that they are seldom 100% right and the margin of error is always there when analysts make calls. The key is your ability to make calls which are transparent and add value for decision makers when they are made

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Is the US headed for recession?

Edward Harrison — Thu, 06 Oct 2011 15:00:03 +0000

Bottom line: I think we are in the technical recovery phase of a double dip recession that is a once in a generation period of balance sheet repair. To me, it’s a depression. Irrespective of what you call this thing we are living through, it is not good. Unemployment is sky high, wage growth is nowhere and we are still beset by crisis

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It’s Going to Get Worse

Edward Harrison — Sat, 01 Oct 2011 13:00:34 +0000

ECRI has predicted a recession in the US. In the videos below, Lakshman Achuthan talks with Yahoo Finance and the Wall Street Journal about ECRI’s new recession call

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Some predictions for the rest of the decade

Michael Pettis — Sun, 28 Aug 2011 22:30:55 +0000

Markets have been crazy this month, but rather than try to wade through all the news, much of which doesn’t seem to have much informational content, I thought I would duck out altogether and instead make a list of things I expect will happen over the next several years

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Investing in a world of austerity

Edward Harrison — Fri, 15 Jul 2011 19:42:54 +0000

If you are an investor, businessperson or employee, what you care about is outcomes. You want to know what’s likely to happen in the economy and in the markets. That is what this site is all about. What I see says that cuts were coming. What does that mean then for the economy and markets

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More cautious optimism?

Edward Harrison — Thu, 21 Apr 2011 17:00:19 +0000

Overall, I would say that the exogenous shocks have added to downside risk. I would expect economic weakness in the second half of 2011. If economic weakness does materialize in the US, I would expect lower long-term interest rates. Many are predicting QE2 will lead to higher rates. But why would that be the case in an environment of economic weakness in which risk assets could sell off? Watch the ECRI index for signs that the economy is weakening

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A few brief comments on America’s fiscal choices

Edward Harrison — Wed, 06 Apr 2011 19:00:14 +0000

The private sector (particularly the household sector) is overly indebted. The level of debt households now carry cannot be supported by income at the present levels of consumption. The natural tendency, therefore, is toward more saving and less spending in the private sector (although asset price appreciation can attenuate this through the Wealth Effect). That

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Mauldin: Thinking the Unthinkable

Edward Harrison — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 18:40:41 +0000

This is the second of a two-part economic forecast by John Mauldin published on 8 Jan and 15 Jan 2011. In this issue: The Fed Adds a Third Mandate A Rational Voice in Dallas Thinking the Unthinkable The Threat of the Irish Has China Found a Miracle Business Cycle? The Fed Adds a Third Mandate

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Forecast 2011: Better than Muddle Through

Guest Author — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 15:30:14 +0000

This is the first of a two-part economic forecast by John Mauldin published on 8 Jan and 15 Jan 2011. The second part will appear shortly. In this issue: How Did We Do on 2010? Russia and the Roots of World Inflation The US Will More than Muddle Through December Unemployment Better than Headline A

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Cautiously Optimistic Into 2011

Edward Harrison — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 15:30:00 +0000

It’s high time I laid my cards on the table about 2011. I have hinted around my view in previous posts, promising to spell it out in detail. So, here it is: I am cautiously optimistic on the US and global economy for 2011. Let me explain both pieces of the puzzle – the cautious

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Mark Hulbert: The Market Has Risen Every Third Year of a Presidential Cycle Since 1932

Edward Harrison — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 20:11:12 +0000

"Whatever political party holds the white house wants to get re-elected. So it’s going to do whatever it can to make the economy look good on election day" -Mark Hulbert This is how I see things as well. The question, of course, is how successful the Obama Administration will be in getting its way with

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Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2011

Edward Harrison — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 01:53:12 +0000

I have just finished reviewing Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2010. Now, I present you Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2011. He is bullish again. Enjoy. -Byron R. Wien, Vice Chairman, Blackstone Advisory Partners, today issued his list of The Ten Surprises for 2011. This is the 26th year Byron has given his predictions

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Reviewing Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2010

Edward Harrison — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 01:22:43 +0000

Byron Wien had a stellar record in 2009, accurately predicting the effect of a rather robust second half recovery across a broad range of markets. However, Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2010 were well off the mark. Before we review I will repeat what I said when Wien made his predictions: 2010 list predicated on

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Economic Themes at the Start of 2011

Marc Chandler — Mon, 03 Jan 2011 12:45:48 +0000

BBH's currency strategy team reviews the major economic issues in the four investing regions of note: the US, Europe, China and other Emerging Markets. In the US growth is accelerating. In Europe, the economy struggles with a sovereign debt crisis. In China growth is moderating. And in the Emerging markets, officials wrestle with capital inflows from abroad

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Saxo Bank: ten outrageous predictions for 2011

Edward Harrison — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 18:54:32 +0000

This is the third year I have featured the Danish Saxo Bank’s outrageous predictions list. They are meant to be true outliers and not actual predictions, so don’t expect them to hit 10 for 10 or even 7 for 10. The point of the list is to help people think about outlier scenarios and what

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Random Shots – 2011 Musings Edition

Claus Vistesen — Wed, 15 Dec 2010 02:00:33 +0000

by Claus Vistesen (work in progress, but I thought that I would publish it thus far, stay tuned for more additions) I did have some plans to do a series of post to give a brief overview of my main macro and trade themes for 2011, but time has, not surprisingly, caught up with me.

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Reading the Tea Leaves

Annaly Salvos — Wed, 15 Dec 2010 00:11:00 +0000

by Annaly Capital Management Today’s “must read” comes courtesy of Professor Jeremy Siegel of Wharton Business School and “Stocks For the Long Run” fame. His Wall Street Journal op-ed, titled “The Fed’s Policy Is Working,” can be read online with a subscription. The piece can be summarized in the following quote: “The recent surge in

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Rosenberg: Ten Investment Themes for 2011

Guest Author — Mon, 13 Dec 2010 21:27:30 +0000

The following is an excerpt from David Rosenberg's recent Lunch with Dave daily research piece highlighting Ten Themes for 2011. These themes are quite a bit different than the ones we highlighted just days ago from former colleague Richard Bernstein - much more cautious on the near-term future

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In Bullish Mode

Edward Harrison — Mon, 13 Dec 2010 16:30:38 +0000

I was on BNN this past Friday talking to Howard Green about China, banks and GE. My comments were pretty near-term bullish on the whole regarding Chinese growth, bank dividends, and bank reforms. The longer-term is another issue. Here’s what I see happening. The Chinese economy, like the two other big EM economies in Brazil

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Bullish on stocks and America: Richard Bernstein’s Eleven Predictions for 2011

Edward Harrison — Thu, 09 Dec 2010 19:35:24 +0000

This one from the Former Merrill Lynch Chief Investment Strategist Bernstein seems to be making the rounds. Hat tip Barry Ritholtz. Here’s where I first noted that Richard Bernstein had turned bullish: Bernstein added that one wants to load up on risk now if one believes in the recovery. Junky names are the best as

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Demographic Time Bombs – They May Not be What You Think

John Lounsbury — Fri, 22 Oct 2010 23:56:54 +0000

Long term (over 20-30 years) demographics will favor the U.S. over Germany and China in international trade

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Less Policy Advocacy and More Policy Forecasting at Credit Writedowns

Edward Harrison — Fri, 22 Oct 2010 19:00:42 +0000

Blogs in the econoblogosphere are heavy on economic policy advocacy. Ever since the heyday of the US and European housing bubble, the majority of bloggers in the space who are unaffiliated with media sources have been recommending policy makers take specific courses of action to mitigate downside risk. That is the bread and butter of

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Nouriel Roubini’s Talk at Google’s Zeitgeistminds

Edward Harrison — Mon, 04 Oct 2010 17:45:00 +0000

Chrystia Freeland introduces Dr. Roubini, reminding him that he is still known as Dr. Doom. She quips he should wear the name with pride because he was "one of the very few economists who was actually right about the crisis." This reminds me of Nassim Taleb who said recently that we shouldn’t listen to anything

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Nouriel Roubini’s Talk at Google’s Zeitgeistminds originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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David Tice Says Double-Dip Recession ‘In the Cards’ for U.S.

Edward Harrison — Sat, 31 Jul 2010 09:00:00 +0000

David Tice, chief portfolio strategist for bear markets at Federated Investors Inc, talks about the outlook for the U.S. economy. He sees a double dip coming and argues against stimulus to prevent it, saying policy makers shouldn’t act as “Good Time Charlie” preventing the deleveraging of U.S. households. Related Posts David Tice: All bearish, all

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David Tice Says Double-Dip Recession ‘In the Cards’ for U.S. originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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David Tice: All bearish, all the time 5 Jul 2009
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What does a double dip recession look like? 2 Aug 2009