Category: Economy
Observations Early in the Pacific Century
The economic historian Arnold Toynbee argued that civilization began in the East, expanded around the world, and will return to the East. Even if expressed somewhat differently, many people seem to believe that the 21st century will be a Pacific century. The center of the world economy for the last couple of centuries has been
GDP and Recessions — A Valuable Metric (but Overused)
In this piece on GDP and recessions, John Lounsbury expands on an earlier article about how this particular recession is different. Catch more of John and other top-notch econ writers at Global Economic Intersection, John’s new website on economics. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is one of the most widely followed metrics when people try to
More On The ECRI Leading Indicator
by Comstock Partners Last week, toward the end of our comment on consumer deleveraging, we mentioned that the year-over-year change in the ECRI Weekly Leading Indicator had strongly suggested the distinct possibility of recession. In answer to some questions about it, we would like to provide a bit more detail this week. When we were
Rosenberg: Not Your Average Recession
by John Lounsbury David Rosenberg, Chief Economist & Strategist at Gluskin Sheff, Toronto, has a graph that goes a long way toward explaining why this recovery does not feel like a recovery: Click on images for larger graphs. Is the reason that this doesn’t feel like a recovery because so many things have not recovered?
CFOs not optimistic on economy
The Duke University/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey which concluded last week showed a high level of concern amongst top financial officers in major organizations worldwide. Of note are the CFOs ideas regarding employment and credit where they are less upbeat than I expected. Their views that credit markets remain tight and that employment growth
More on retail sales, small businesses and economic growth
There were three pieces of data today that give the complete picture for the consumer economy right now. My read of the data says we are now in a holding pattern awaiting more concrete evidence that the technical recovery which began last summer actually has legs and will become a real recovery. There are tenuous
Rosenberg: “If I was going to publish a bullish report on the U.S. economy…”
Everybody’s favourite bearish analyst, Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg had a few thoughts on some of the bullish analyses he’s been seeing. Despite his bearishness, he even goes as far as to say why he would be bullish. Here are the first relevant few paragraphs from his morning note: WHAT PASSES FOR RESEARCH THESE DAYS Somebody
Small business optimism sees slight uptick
CNBC discusses the small tick up in the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index with William Dunkelberg, Chief Economist for the National Federation of Independent Business. Note that despite the uptick, small businesses are not saying they plan to hire more workers or increase capital investment. The world in small business land is in a world
Hatzius pegs a double dip at only 25 percent
Here’s Jan Hatzius, Chief US Economist at Goldman, talking to Steve Liesman on CNBC talking about the economy and taxes (Hat tip Joe Weisenthal). Hatzius sees significant growth risks but is more sanguine on a multi-year recovery scenario than I have been. &#
Hussman: Watch the lagging indicators
John Hussman is not buying the recent risk-on sentiment that has developed since September began. For example, retail sales numbers are to be released tomorrow. Marc Chandler has said that a number above consensus estimates of 0.3% growth "will likely be seen as further confirmation that that exceptionally soft patch the economy had slipped into
China is Still a Renegade Nation
A few years ago, Chris Dialynas and I wrote a piece which introduced the concept of “renegade economics”. It was derived from a Frank D. Graham’s 1943 essay titled, “Fundamentals of International Monetary Policy.” Graham, a Princeton University economist, wrote: “In international affairs we must therefore strive to reconcile the liberty of the individual, the
Anticipating the End of a Weak Recovery
By most estimates, the statistical recovery which began in the second half of 2009 in the US has been weak. Many had been talking about a V-shaped recovery early this year. However, given the magnitude of the imbalances in the U.S. leading up to recession, the underperformance of this technical recovery is not surprising. Now,