Category: Economy
The Fed’s definition of “clarity” is not like yours or mine
Each member will be asked to give a number for what they think the interest rate will be at the end of this year, the end of next few years and also in the long run. Won’t it be confusing to have 12 different predictions for this
PBOC Easing To Continue In 2012
With the Chinese New Year holiday period approaching, it becomes a bit harder to discern PBOC’s policy intentions. It typically adds liquidity aggressively ahead of the holidays, but this year it comes at a time when the central bank is embarking on what we see as a protracted easing cycle
European Bond Supply and Greece’s Trojan Horse
European sovereigns return to the capital markets more substantially next week as 2012 issuance gets under way. Between bills and bonds, around 35-40 bln euros will be sold. Maturing issues and coupon payments will cover about three-quarters of the bond issuance
Beyond Jobs
The US jobs report is the main economic release today. In recent months, better than expected employment reports have spurred risk on trading and this has been dollar negative. Given the ADP report, despite the December skew in that time series, market expectations appear to have crept higher and it will take a stronger than expected number of give the dollar much of a lift. However, with Spanish and Italian bond auctions next week, the extent of a relief rally in the euro may be constrained
Right Now the Debt Crisis is European, But the Problem is Global
In addition to the European economic recession exerting a drag on the rest of the world, the real threat of bankruptcy of a major financial institution can rapidly spread throughout the globe as a result of a run on the banks or the opaque interrelationships between European banks and financial institutions in other nations
ECB/Fed Support for the European Banking System – 750 billion USD, and counting …
It is my view that the ECB is now the only thing between the economy and widespread bank failures, but I also concur that the consequence of this is a permanent outsourcing of the interbank market in Europe to the ECB’s balance sheet and, quite possibly, Fed’s USD swap lines
Nonlinear Thinking: The Robot Soldier
Great piece from our friends at Al Jazeera. Looks like the military is no longer going to be the “employer of last resort.” Future veterans are going to highly trained in the cutting edge technology that will shape the next hundred years. Gives new meaning to “boots bots on the ground.”
Italy Braces Itself For The Full Monti
The bottom line is that Italy is both too big to fail and too big to be bailed out, which is why it is still hanging dangerously in limbo-land. Since, as I argue in this article, some sort of restructuring or other is well nigh inevitable in the Italian case, the sooner Europe’s leaders work up a credible plan on how to achieve this, the better. Otherwise it will not only be Italy’s citizens who are subjected to the Full Monti, Europe’s leaders may also find themselves with their credibility stripped naked
Chart of the Day: International Manufacturing Compensation Costs Compared
Great data from the BLS comparing hourly compensation for manufacturing. The second chart looks at the benefits component of the hourly cost
Chart of the Day: U.S. Real Earnings through November 2011
Only three positive months in the last year. Lots of pain out there. Be charitable this holiday season, our friends. The return is tremendous
Welcome to Amazon Town
The Wall Street Journal’s Stu Woo reports on how Amazon ramps up for the Christmas selling season in a much-read write-up for the paper with a focus on the thoughts of holiday season workers like 75-year old Ray Williams and his wife Sarann. Is this what retirement looks like in the
Nonlinear Thinking: Drone Flight-Assembled High Rise Construction
Imagine if/when this becomes scalable. Another potential example of the structural change taking place in the labor force