Credit Writedowns » Edward Hugh

Global Growth Is Slowing

Edward Hugh — Tue, 08 May 2012 21:30:27 +0000

So momentum is weakening across the entire global economy at the present point, not just in say Europe, or China. Global output is still growing but it is growing at an increasingly weaker pace. What could change that

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On Lord Wolfson’s Economic Prize for Leaving Euro Area

Edward Hugh — Tue, 03 Apr 2012 12:15:01 +0000

At around 9:00am London time this morning Lord Wolfson held a press conference to announce the five finalists in his economics prize contest. Naturally Lord Wolfson is not looking for just any solutions, as the initial question makes clear, he is looking for a solution in which at least one member country leaves the Euro and a procedure (or template) whereby other countries who find themselves in a similar situation might leave. Unfortunately this questions begs many other questions, some of which have no easy answer

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Full Text: Moody’s: Euro Area Sovereigns Remain Under Pressure In Absence of Decisive Initiatives 12 Dec 2011

Portugal Gradually Shuffles Its Way Up Towards The Front Of The Debt Queue

Edward Hugh — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 00:30:57 +0000

Naturally austerity isn’t popular, and evidently it doesn’t work as intended, but then this was already known before we started on this course, so it isn’t really a surprise. But what alternative do the Euro Area’s imprisoned periphery have, since if they leave the currency and default on their debts they will be in a real mess, and if they stay they are in a real mess too

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On Homeric Similes And Spanish Debt

Edward Hugh — Tue, 06 Mar 2012 18:00:00 +0000

Spain is on a bad course, with recognised debt about to surge rapidly, while investor confidence in the current administration is slipping. Time for another “game changer” I think, since otherwise this car is about to crash

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Staring Into The Ukrainian Economic And Political Abyss

Edward Hugh — Wed, 29 Feb 2012 20:30:25 +0000

By Edward Hugh It’s been a long time now since Paul Krugman spoke of the Ukraine economy epitomising the arrival of what he then termed the “second great depression“, and its been an even longer long time since we lay awake at night dreaming about the coming conquests of the Orange Revolution. It’s also been

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2012: The Year We All Learn To Live Dangerously

Edward Hugh — Fri, 24 Feb 2012 11:00:00 +0000

Thus the road ahead looks clear, if somewhat flat. The Euro Area’s two largest economies look set to escape “the worst of the worst”, but remain dependent on factors outside their control, in the US, in China, and in the Emerging Market world as a whole, all of whom could in their turn be badly affected by the impact on risk sentiment of any unfortunate “accident” in the Eurozone itself. Most of these issues are unlikely to go away any time in the foreseeable future, which is why I think 2012 will be marked as the year we learnt to live with the world we have, and stop dreaming about another one, which has long since ceased to exist

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For Whom The Bailout Tolls

Edward Hugh — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 06:00:59 +0000

So Greece has finally been awarded a second bailout. One may wish the country will live to tell the tale. According to IMF DG Christine Lagarde, speaking at the post agreement press conference, “It’s not an easy (program), it’s an ambitious one,”. Never a truer word was said, and certainly not in jest. Not only is the program an ambitious one, it is more than probably a “pie in the sky” one too. The objective of 120% for Greek debt in GDP is totally unrealistic, not because it won’t be attained (it won’t), but because even if it were the country would still be in an unsustainable situation in

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Quick Reality Czech

Edward Hugh — Mon, 20 Feb 2012 14:00:00 +0000

The Czech Republic is the first economy in central and eastern Europe to slide back into a full technical recession during the current downturn (evidently it is unlikely to be the last)

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Global Manufacturing Steadies as She Goes, or Does She?

Edward Hugh — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 21:00:02 +0000

The year got off on a much better foot than might have been expected, at least as far as global manufacturing is concerned. So the fall in global manufacturing has flattened out, even though the bounce back has more of a dead cat look about it than anything else. As usual in recent months the report was very much a mixed bag

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A Month In Spain That Didn’t Shake The World

Edward Hugh — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 13:00:00 +0000

Spain’s economic problems are very grave. The country is facing a decade long depression, and if enough young qualified people leave during this period then the country could enter a negative dynamic from which it will never properly recover. At the outset (2007) I and others argued for a 20% internal devaluation to shift resources over to the export sector. This did not happen, and virtually no one is interested in the idea. The main priorities are still reducing the deficit, and restructuring the financial sector without injecting any significant quantity of public money. Both these policies are contractionary in their impact. In addition the proposed labour market reform is timid, and won’t act quickly enough to stop the rot on the growth front

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