Articles By: Edward Harrison
[Premium] Daily commentary: The global growth slowdown catches India and Australia
The global growth slowdown began in the second half of 2011. I flagged it as a trend last May. When I updated my view in December, my concerns were Europe, China, India and Australia. And this is still the case
Video: Ron Paul vs Paul Krugman
Here is the video everyone is talking about, Ron Paul and Paul Krugman debating the economy and economic policy. Enjoy
[Premium] Australian house prices down 1.1% Q-o-Q
Last week I said I would do a better job of tracking the Australian housing market as my prediction for 2012 is that it is a bubble which will pop
[Premium] Euro zone policy may turn to relax 3/60 hurdle and to EuroTARP
The mood has turned against austerity in the euro zone because it is now rightly seen as anti-growth. The question is what next. Here I will hazard a few predictions of where euro zone policy is headed including a Euro
[Premium] Daily commentary: Europe is in a double dip recession
The news from Spain’s statistical agency INE is that the Spanish economy shrank 0.3% in the first quarter of 2011. Spain thus joins ten other Western European economies in recession. None of this should come as a surprise. Given the policy response, I am surprised it took as long as it did to move to recession. I predicted as much fully two years ago
[Premium] Why the Spanish bailout may be to recap the banks instead of sovereign
Ever since Willem Buiter mentioned the probability of a Spanish bailout some time in 2012, speculation has been rife about a Spanish bailout. In this column I argue that Spain is still too big to bail and that any bailout for Spain must therefore be of Spanish banks and not the Spanish sovereign. I believe this will happen and I will keep you abreast of the developments. If it does happen, it will have very big implications not just for Spain but for sovereign debt, European equities and the global economy
[Premium] Daily commentary: On the lower US nominal GDP growth numbers and the Fed
The GDP numbers for the US came out again and they were weaker than anticipated, coming in at 2.2% for real GDP growth instead of the 2.5% expected. Nominal GDP growth was only 3.7%. That is not bullish for shares
Bill Gross: QE on hold but QE3 would be back on if jobs reports are weak
Last month PIMCO founder and Chief Investment Officer Bill Gross said PIMCO sees a mortgage-backed QE3 from the Fed as likely. As a result, Pimco has increased its exposure to these. He spoke to Bloomberg television yesterday about how his views on this have changed and it depends on the upcoming jobs reports
Full Text: S&P downgrades Spain two notches
“We believe that the Kingdom of Spain’s budget trajectory will likely deteriorate against a background of economic contraction in contrast with our previous projections. At the same time, we see an increasing likelihood that Spain’s government will need to provide further fiscal support to the banking sector.”
[Premium] Daily commentary: On Dutch Austerity
As I write this the lower house of Dutch Parliament is debating what and where to cut in order to get their budget under the 3% hurdle as quickly as possible
[Premium] Why the EU is temporarily dropping the 3% hurdle
It looks like the EU has finally figured out that austerity is anti-growth and that in the EU context this is leading to debt deflation. The word on the street is that the EU is prepared to temporarily relax the 3% Maastricht hurdle. This article explains why
[Premium] Is shale oil cheap?
There is some evidence that recently discovered shale oil fields cannot be successfully exploited at prices under $100 a barrel