Credit Writedowns » Edward Harrison

News Links 02/09/2012

Edward Harrison — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 05:30:49 +0000

Jeremy Grantham’s investing strategies for 2012 – CBS News “Quality gave back a bit of its outperformance [in the fourth] quarter, but the game is in the early innings still,” GMO says in its latest report. “High quality stocks still trade at attractive levels, and the general defensive posture of quality still remains appealing given

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Richard Nixon: 1971 Annual Message to the Congress on the State of the Union

Edward Harrison — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 14:24:50 +0000

I have highlighted some of the state of the union addresses by Herbert Hoover in the past because I see the Great depression as a time with certain parallels to the present economic hardship. Let's look at the 1970s instead now. Here's Richard Nixon from 1971, with what was considered a conservative agenda in 1971 based on balancing the federal budget and rolling back centralised governance. However, regarding details, Nixon proposes small government ideas on welfare reform and big government ideas in almost all other aspects of his State of the Union Address. I have bolded what I consider the most important parts

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William K. Black explains control fraud at length

Edward Harrison — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 13:30:00 +0000

This is a good and in-depth interview with Bill Black conducted by George Mason economics professor Russ Roberts. I highly recommend your listening to it

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News Links: Missouri Attorney General Files Criminal Lawsuit on Robosigning

Edward Harrison — Wed, 08 Feb 2012 05:30:53 +0000

Mirabile Dictu! Missouri Attorney General Files Criminal Lawsuit on Robosigning « naked capitalism What is striking about the indictment by a Missouri grand jury is that the Missouri AG Chris Koster has decided to challenge the banks’ party line that robosigning and related abuses were mere "paperwork problems." He’s called robosiging what it is: forgery.

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Banks Paying Cash to Homeowners to Avoid Foreclosures

Edward Harrison — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 15:30:50 +0000

Here's the latest story that's been getting buzz around the internet: banks are trying to get troubled mortgages off their books without having to go through costly foreclosure processes and they are offering homeowners cash incentives to do so

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Greek protests turn very anti-Germany

Edward Harrison — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 15:05:48 +0000

This is how it's going down in Greece right now. The sentiment is very Anti-German on the eve of the austerity/bailout decision. The debt haircut and writedowns coming of upwards of 50% is a default in everything but name. Technical default is a real possibility as well

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[Premium] Dow Transports lagging is a warning sign

Edward Harrison — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 13:00:56 +0000

There are still a lot of Dow Theory followers out there even after over 100 years. And the divergence between a bullish DJIA headline number and the lagging Dow Transports is bearish from a technical perspective

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News Links: Greek Default: Why Now May Be Best Time to Do It

Edward Harrison — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 05:30:54 +0000

Greek Default: Why Now May Be Best Time to Do It – US Business News Blog – CNBC Last week in general gave life to the recovery theme, with 15 of 23 indicators beating expectations and causing some economists to raise their growth outlook for the full year. So, with sentiment running so garishly positive,

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Quick note on updates at Credit Writedowns

Edward Harrison — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 03:30:07 +0000

I have instituted a few changes at Credit Writedowns to which I wanted to alert readers. The changes were mostly for members but they affect all readers. I had heard from a few member readers that it wasn't clear where member content resides as most of it is integrated into the normal post stream. So I have made a number of changes in order to make the member content much more recognizable as members-only content

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[Premium] Ireland’s Private Debt Problem

Edward Harrison — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 03:00:59 +0000

You saw the chart about two weeks ago on Developed economies’ debt levels by sector. Different economies have different debt problems. A few like Greece have public sector debt woes. And this is the sort of problem that forces a default only when the country is a currency user (and not a monopoly issuer of currency) as Japan has demonstrated. Mostly, however, the problem is in the private sector, where all of the indebted parties are currency users

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[Premium] Growth momentum shift to Emerging Markets continues

Edward Harrison — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 18:00:38 +0000

Two weeks ago I highlighted the fact that Indonesia has re-attained an investment grade rating, continuing the upward path it has been on since the Asian crisis derailed the Asian growth story 15 years ago. Indeed, we should expect emerging markets, and Asian emerging markets in particular to outperform developed economies

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[PREMIUM]: 2012 an inflection point toward S&P500 margin compression

Edward Harrison — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 13:36:04 +0000

What I have been saying throughout 2011 is that margin compression is going to happen no matter what. The cuts have been made and so margins cannot grow any higher from cuts. It has to come from operating leverage that increases as a result of revenue growth

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Is US democracy being bought and sold?

Edward Harrison — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 13:05:03 +0000

The answer is yes. video below

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News Links 02/04/2012

Edward Harrison — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 05:30:46 +0000

Schneiderman Files Civil Fraud Lawsuit Against Three Major Banks for Use of MERS « naked capitalism New York filed a lawsuit against various units of JP Morgan, Bank of America, Wells, MERSCORP and MERS over their use of MERS in foreclosures. This civil suit alleges that the use of MERS has “resulted in a wide

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El-Erian on jobs: Headline bullish but structural issues remain

Edward Harrison — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 19:14:10 +0000

Bloomberg Television has another video with PIMCO head Mohamed El-Erian, this time on the jobs number. This one number has the potential to set the tone for the short-term because it was so far ahead of consensus estimates. El-Erian cautions about getting to far into the risk-on trade because of the number though as the US still has structural issues. I would add that it is a long way to November and this is just one number. Let's see how the picture develops

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Chart of the day: Labor force participation rate at 30-year low

Edward Harrison — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 17:40:11 +0000

The jobs data were the best we have seen in a long time and well above expectations. This and the first upward revisions to the annual revisions were a pleasant surprise. While a lot of people are in disbelief because of a present bearish bias, you have to take the numbers for what they are and they are bullish. I still feel that the US economy is at stall speed and expect a second recession by the end of 2013 but I am prepared to upgrade my assessment based on how things proceed. That said, this is just one month's data in a notoriously noisy month for employment data (See the premium post Jobless claims jump may be seasonality)

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[PREMIUM] If you were looking for a reason to be bullish, this jobs report is it

Edward Harrison — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 13:34:46 +0000

The jobs report has just come out and the numbers are amazingly bullish. This article for subscribed members looks at what the report means.

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News Links 02/03/2012

Edward Harrison — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 05:30:50 +0000

Financial news links for 3 February

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Chart of the Day: Government Deficits as Far as the Eye Can See

Edward Harrison — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 21:51:17 +0000

The chart below from the blog Pragmatic Capitalism shows the U.S. Federal government deficit for each quarter since 1952. As you can see, almost the entire period is marked by deficits

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With heavy Greek exposure, three largest banks in Cyprus now junk

Edward Harrison — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 21:00:11 +0000

Cyprus is not an important player on the world's financial stage but it does bear noting that banking and sovereign debt problems run both wide and deep in the European Union. The latest news underscoring these difficulties comes via Fitch, which has just downgraded the largest banks in Cyprus to below investment-grade status

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Auerback: Austerity during recession is equivalent to medieval bloodletting

Edward Harrison — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 15:30:27 +0000

Here's a good video performance by Marshall Auerback on BNN's Business Day program. Marshall thinks the Greek default deal is actually a relatively good one. But sees a Portuguese default after the Greek default as a real possibility and envisions a scenario in which Portugal and Spain look to extract similar terms. Moreover, the quid pro quo for Greece is austerity - and that makes getting debt loads down harder when implemented during a downturn

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News Links: The perils of Mario Draghi’s €1.5 trillion blitz

Edward Harrison — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 05:31:19 +0000

News Links for 2 Feb

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John Reed on Big Banks and Corporatism

Edward Harrison — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 04:00:28 +0000

Bill Moyers talks to former Citicorp and Citigroup head John Reed about what's wrong in the banking sector. John Reed readily acknowledges his role in bringing down the Glass-Steagall Act (Hat tip finance Addict)

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More on Banks Making Shed Loads But Fannie And Freddie “Losing Money as a Matter of Policy”

Edward Harrison — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 20:30:01 +0000

Fannie and Freddie have already been nationalized and the government is already on the hook for hundreds of billions of dollars of losses as a result. Clearly, this makes it a lot easier to use the GSEs as vehicles to pump money into the economy because any incremental loss is completely obscured by the existing gargantuan losses. Fannie and Freddie can essentially become a giant stimulus slush fund for the Obama Administration as we head into the 2012 election

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Get Out of Jail Free, European Edition

Edward Harrison — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 19:44:31 +0000

I was thinking about that last post I wrote on the euro zone and regulatory forbearance. They say a picture is worth a thousand words. So here's a picture that captures my thinking pretty well

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The European Sovereign Debt Crisis, the US Savings and Loan Crisis and Regulatory Forbearance

Edward Harrison — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 13:48:21 +0000

This is me thinking out loud about how regulatory forbearance in the S&L crisis mirrors today's policy path

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News Links 02/01/2012

Edward Harrison — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 05:30:52 +0000

News links for 1 Feb

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News Links 01/31/2012

Edward Harrison — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 04:31:18 +0000

NIALL FERGUSON: Okay, I Admit It—Paul Krugman Was Right Professor Ferguson’s take on the United States has changed notably over the past year. He still thinks the U.S. budget deficit is unsustainable and that our entitlement programs will ultimately have to be cut. But he has changed his mind about the U.S.’s ability to sustain

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News Links 01/30/2012

Edward Harrison — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 03:31:22 +0000

The Best Alternative Financial Blogs – CNBC To assemble our list, we polled our friends, our sources, and our followers on Twitter. We excluded many of the sites we really enjoy because they are associated with major media organizations. tags: blogs finance Posted from Diigo. The rest of my favorite links are here. Related Posts

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News Links 01/28/2012

Edward Harrison — Sat, 28 Jan 2012 03:30:31 +0000

Greece plans orderly exit of the Eurozone – National International Trade | Examiner.com Greece plans an orderly exit out of the Eurozone according to two sources close to Mr. Papademos, Greek Prime Minister, who spoke on condition of anonymity earlier today. tags: greece currency euro Charles Murray on the New American Divide – WSJ.com If

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Chart of the Day: Permanent Zero and Personal Interest Income

Edward Harrison — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 22:22:38 +0000

If you are a retiree, you're not happy these days. Five years ago, you were getting a decent return on your fixed income investments. But since then, the Fed has trashed the fixed income market by reducing interest rates to zero percent for "an extended period". The thinking is that this will get people to take on more credit. But the reality is that a lot of people are stuffed to the gills with existing credit and are not creditworthy. The Fed is pushing on a string

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[PREMIUM] The Ultimate QE is the Fed’s Coming Purchase of Real Assets

Edward Harrison — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 19:35:43 +0000

I would bet on near-systemic collapse before the Fed starts either asset purchases or Congress resorts to fiscal activism. But eventually, the Fed is going to purchase more than just treasuries. They will purchase a lot of financial assets and probably some real assets as well

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Stephen Roach on US, the Fed, China, and Europe

Edward Harrison — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 15:00:02 +0000

Stephen Roach says the Fed is going all in in support of QE and I agree. But what else are they going to do? Look at Europe, for example. The ECB there has a hydra-headed problem with sovereigns and banks on the brink of insolvency and they too have expanded the balance sheet like mad. China faces many of the same challenges with excess credit growth and fragile financial firms in the face of asset price deflation

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I repeat: The Fed’s Permanent Zero rate policy is toxic

Edward Harrison — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 14:20:05 +0000

Permanent zero can work over the medium-term but the economy is dependent on employment growth and monetary policy doesn't drive that

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[PREMIUM] More on the Fed – Obama stimulus plan

Edward Harrison — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 13:00:55 +0000

My last weekly said the hand-in-hand Fed activism and fiscal activism via Obama's mortgage proposal is bullish. Let me add a bit of colour here

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