• The disaster in Europe versus data in the US (plus China and Argentina)

    Despite the title, this is not a mono-themed post but more of a highlight of recent news and data and their importance in interpreting the direction of the economy and potential effect on markets. I do want to concentrate on European and US data but I also have some data points from elsewhere. Let’s start with Europe. Europe needs a […]

    The disaster in Europe versus data in the US (plus China and Argentina)
  • Cyclical recovery petering out before it hits middle class

    Before I get into the details today, I want to note that going forward, I may not have the bandwidth to be able to post on a daily basis. I am going to try. But there are definitely going to be weekdays going forward where I won’t be able to post given other commitments I am making. I don’t want […]

    Cyclical recovery petering out before it hits middle class
  • Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2014, Update 2

    Today is the time to update you on how my 2014 surprises are faring and why. Just to remind you, the surprise list is based on Byron Wien’s list of ten surprises which he has been conducting for the last thirty years. Surprises are events to which investors assign 1-in-3 odds of happening but which I believe have a more […]

    Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2014, Update 2
  • My thoughts on weakness in Europe and China

    I am back from my summer holiday. There has been a lot of news in the time since I last posted. And the news flow is coming from a lot of different places. So, let me start up again with a post highlighting what I think are some of the key macro issues in a number of countries around the […]

    My thoughts on weakness in Europe and China
  • The Italian Runaway Train

    By Edward Hugh There has been lot’s of debate in the press and in academic circles over the last week or so about whether Italy’s latest contraction constitutes a triple dip recession or simply a continuation of what’s been going on over many many years. This is an interesting theoretical nicety, but in fact what is happening in Italy at […]

    The Italian Runaway Train
  • Abenomics – What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

    Japan needs deep seated cultural changes, especially ones directed to greater female empowerment and more openness towards immigration. Japan needs a series of structural reforms – like those under discussion around the third arrow – but these would be to soften the blow of workforce and population decline, not an attempt to run away from it. Monetary policy has its limits. As Martin Wolf so aptly put it, “you can’t print babies”.

    Abenomics – What Could Possibly Go Wrong?
  • “I am determined that the American dollar must never again be a hostage in the hands of international speculators”

    Below is the video of Richard Nixon closing the gold window exactly 43 years ago to day. Hat tip to Raja Korman

    “I am determined that the American dollar must never again be a hostage in the hands of  international speculators”
  • Some brief thoughts on private debt, financial fragility and economic growth

    I am very interested in the intersection of private debt, financial fragility and economic growth because I believe this intersection is pivotal in understanding whether the secular forces which led to the Great Financial Crisis have been arrested. I want to use Ireland as a jumping off point here for a wider questioning. [Content protected for Gold members only] In […]

    Some brief thoughts on private debt, financial fragility and economic growth
  • Economic and market themes: 2014-08-01 US, China, Argentina, France

    This week’s economic and market themes piece is going to be a little shorter than usual because I have covered a lot of the major topics earlier in the week. [Content protected for Gold members only] My take here is that France and Italy are the countries to watch in Europe. Watch Italy because it is in a precarious position, […]

    Economic and market themes: 2014-08-01 US, China, Argentina, France
  • Upbeat cyclical trends are juxtaposed to underlying financial fragility

    This post is on the same topic of the US economy that I addressed yesterday. But I want to go a bit deeper and add more colour to my comments. Signs that the US economy’s cyclical outlook are improving are getting ever more numerous, especially when we look at the labor market. Jobs numbers In the US, jobless claims came […]

    Upbeat cyclical trends are juxtaposed to underlying financial fragility

Members »

Cyclical recovery petering out before it hits middle class

Cyclical recovery petering out before it hits middle class

20 August 2014 at 12:52

Before I get into the details today, I want to note that going forward, I may not have the bandwidth to be able to post on a daily basis. I am going to try. But there are...

Commentary »

The disaster in Europe versus data in the US (plus China and Argentina)

The disaster in Europe versus data in the US (plus China and Argentina)

21 August 2014 at 11:42

Despite the title, this is not a mono-themed post but more of a highlight of recent news and data and their importance in interpreting the direction of the economy and potential...

Daily »

Links: 2014-08-04

Links: 2014-08-04

4 August 2014 at 11:28

China dumps Symantec, Kaspersky Lab from approved vendors – CNET ekathimerini.com | Moody’s upgrades Greece by two notches China Services Index Drops to Six-Month...

  • Links: 2014-08-01
    Links: 2014-08-01

    Puerto Rico Power Authority in Deal With Banks to Defer Loan Payments – WSJ Argentina accuses US of judicial...

    1 August 2014 at 11:34
  • Links: 2014-07-31
    Links: 2014-07-31

    FYI: After the tech links, there is at least one link in this lot that I do not endorse but do think is required...

    31 July 2014 at 09:27
  • Links: 2014-07-30
    Links: 2014-07-30

    There’s one link in this lot that definitely deserves the warning that links do NOT equal endorsements. Not saying...

    30 July 2014 at 08:38
  • Links: 2014-07-29
    Links: 2014-07-29

    Pentagon Plan Would Help Ukraine Target Rebel Missiles – NYTimes.com Smaller Banks’ Customers Hit Hard...

    29 July 2014 at 07:02

All Content

The disaster in Europe versus data in the US (plus China and Argentina)

The disaster in Europe versus data in the US (plus China and Argentina)

Despite the title, this is not a mono-themed post but more of a highlight of recent news and data and their importance in interpreting the direction of the economy and potential effect on markets. I do want to concentrate on European and US data but I also have some data points from elsewhere. Let’s start with Europe. Europe needs a […]

Read more ›
Cyclical recovery petering out before it hits middle class

Cyclical recovery petering out before it hits middle class

Before I get into the details today, I want to note that going forward, I may not have the bandwidth to be able to post on a daily basis. I am going to try. But there are definitely going to be weekdays going forward where I won’t be able to post given other commitments I am making. I don’t want […]

Read more ›
Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2014, Update 2

Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2014, Update 2

Today is the time to update you on how my 2014 surprises are faring and why. Just to remind you, the surprise list is based on Byron Wien’s list of ten surprises which he has been conducting for the last thirty years. Surprises are events to which investors assign 1-in-3 odds of happening but which I believe have a more […]

Read more ›
My thoughts on weakness in Europe and China

My thoughts on weakness in Europe and China

I am back from my summer holiday. There has been a lot of news in the time since I last posted. And the news flow is coming from a lot of different places. So, let me start up again with a post highlighting what I think are some of the key macro issues in a number of countries around the […]

Read more ›
The Italian Runaway Train

The Italian Runaway Train

By Edward Hugh There has been lot’s of debate in the press and in academic circles over the last week or so about whether Italy’s latest contraction constitutes a triple dip recession or simply a continuation of what’s been going on over many many years. This is an interesting theoretical nicety, but in fact what is happening in Italy at […]

Read more ›
Abenomics – What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Abenomics – What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Japan needs deep seated cultural changes, especially ones directed to greater female empowerment and more openness towards immigration. Japan needs a series of structural reforms – like those under discussion around the third arrow – but these would be to soften the blow of workforce and population decline, not an attempt to run away from it. Monetary policy has its limits. As Martin Wolf so aptly put it, “you can’t print babies”.

Read more ›
“I am determined that the American dollar must never again be a hostage in the hands of  international speculators”

“I am determined that the American dollar must never again be a hostage in the hands of international speculators”

Below is the video of Richard Nixon closing the gold window exactly 43 years ago to day. Hat tip to Raja Korman

Read more ›
Some brief thoughts on private debt, financial fragility and economic growth

Some brief thoughts on private debt, financial fragility and economic growth

I am very interested in the intersection of private debt, financial fragility and economic growth because I believe this intersection is pivotal in understanding whether the secular forces which led to the Great Financial Crisis have been arrested. I want to use Ireland as a jumping off point here for a wider questioning. [Content protected for Gold members only] In […]

Read more ›
Links: 2014-08-04

Links: 2014-08-04

China dumps Symantec, Kaspersky Lab from approved vendors – CNET ekathimerini.com | Moody’s upgrades Greece by two notches China Services Index Drops to Six-Month Low on Property – Bloomberg We owe five times more than we did in 2008 – Independent.ie Enough Russian Roulette with Nuclear Fire | Ian Welsh BES seniors fly; sub capitulates | Capital City | IFRe […]

Read more ›
Economic and market themes: 2014-08-01 US, China, Argentina, France

Economic and market themes: 2014-08-01 US, China, Argentina, France

This week’s economic and market themes piece is going to be a little shorter than usual because I have covered a lot of the major topics earlier in the week. [Content protected for Gold members only] My take here is that France and Italy are the countries to watch in Europe. Watch Italy because it is in a precarious position, […]

Read more ›
Links: 2014-08-01

Links: 2014-08-01

Puerto Rico Power Authority in Deal With Banks to Defer Loan Payments – WSJ Argentina accuses US of judicial malpractice for triggering needless default – Telegraph History Suggests China Is on Verge of Banking Crisis – China Real Time Report – WSJ China’s factories spring to life as global trade reawakens | Reuters Europe’s ‘sick man’ France dealt another blow […]

Read more ›
Upbeat cyclical trends are juxtaposed to underlying financial fragility

Upbeat cyclical trends are juxtaposed to underlying financial fragility

This post is on the same topic of the US economy that I addressed yesterday. But I want to go a bit deeper and add more colour to my comments. Signs that the US economy’s cyclical outlook are improving are getting ever more numerous, especially when we look at the labor market. Jobs numbers In the US, jobless claims came […]

Read more ›