Comments on: Readers of this blog expect the recession to last redux http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/01/readers-of-this-blog-expect-the-recession-to-last-redux.html Finance, Economics and Markets Fri, 10 Feb 2012 00:37:00 +0000 hourly 1 By: CrisisMaven http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/01/readers-of-this-blog-expect-the-recession-to-last-redux.html#comment-58263 CrisisMaven Sat, 30 Jan 2010 14:13:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=12830#comment-58263 Some things you can "bank" on is this MOAR - Mother of All Recessions: <a href="http://crisismaven.wordpress.com/2010/01/28/bloom-of-doom-ii-of-mortgage-brokers-arms-attrition-and-marathons/" rel="nofollow">Of Mortgage Brokers, ARMs, Attrition and Marathons</a> and ... there's no such thing as a recovery: <a href="http://crisismaven.wordpress.com/2010/01/25/how-gdp-betrays-the-economy/" rel="nofollow">How GDP betrays the Economy</a> Some things you can “bank” on is this MOAR – Mother of All Recessions: Of Mortgage Brokers, ARMs, Attrition and Marathons and … there’s no such thing as a recovery: How GDP betrays the Economy

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/01/readers-of-this-blog-expect-the-recession-to-last-redux.html#comment-58181 Anonymous Tue, 26 Jan 2010 13:00:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=12830#comment-58181 ... ow, as to the data which underpins the rally and the recovery, let’s look at five areas: GDP, retail sales, personal income, production, and employment. .. waste of time.. typical BS.. using data from BEA BLS FED etc... it's a joke.. #GDP is up. For Q3 2009, GDP was up 2.2% and really...you forgot to mention 15 pct budget deficit.. aka 1.9 tlrn $ #Retail sales are up. Despite th really,, then why is salex taxes down 10 pct from 2009.. see http://www.rockinst.org/newsroom/ #Personal income is up. It has bee really... why is personal income taxes down 20 pct form 2009.. see monthly treasury statement.. #Production is up. Look no further see cash for clunkers and bugget deficit.. #Employment is the weakest link. This is w # nearly as dire as it was early in 2009. HERE' THE NEWS FOR YOU .. ITS MUCH MUCH WORSE.. CHECK out unempl benefits in daily treasury statement its 200 percent form 2009... ( yes 200).. its still worse than in bottom of 2001-2002 reccesion... i guess you just loaded up on stuff in march 2009 and now peddles BS to sell in to suckers.. alex …
ow, as to the data which underpins the rally and the recovery, let’s look at five areas: GDP, retail sales, personal income, production, and employment.
..
waste of time..
typical BS.. using data from BEA BLS FED etc… it’s a joke..

#GDP is up. For Q3 2009, GDP was up 2.2% and
really…you forgot to mention 15 pct budget deficit.. aka 1.9 tlrn $

#Retail sales are up. Despite th
really,, then why is salex taxes down 10 pct from 2009.. see
http://www.rockinst.org/newsroom/

#Personal income is up. It has bee
really… why is personal income taxes down 20 pct form 2009.. see monthly treasury statement..

#Production is up. Look no further
see cash for clunkers and bugget deficit..

#Employment is the weakest link. This is w
# nearly as dire as it was early in 2009.

HERE’ THE NEWS FOR YOU .. ITS MUCH MUCH WORSE..
CHECK out unempl benefits in daily treasury statement its 200 percent
form 2009… ( yes 200).. its still worse than in bottom of 2001-2002 reccesion…

i guess you just loaded up on stuff in march 2009 and now peddles BS to sell in to suckers..

alex

]]> By: Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/01/readers-of-this-blog-expect-the-recession-to-last-redux.html#comment-58113 Edward Harrison Sun, 17 Jan 2010 22:38:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=12830#comment-58113 That's pretty funny! Sent from my mobile phone That’s pretty funny!

Sent from my mobile phone

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/01/readers-of-this-blog-expect-the-recession-to-last-redux.html#comment-58111 Anonymous Sun, 17 Jan 2010 19:42:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=12830#comment-58111 If Goldman Sachs were the only existing US employer, and they employed 10% of the labor force, and GDP grew at 6% per year, we would not be in a recession. We would also have 90% unemployment. If Goldman Sachs were the only existing US employer, and they employed 10% of the labor force, and GDP grew at 6% per year, we would not be in a recession. We would also have 90% unemployment.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/01/readers-of-this-blog-expect-the-recession-to-last-redux.html#comment-58110 Anonymous Sun, 17 Jan 2010 05:43:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=12830#comment-58110 ... et’s look at five areas: GDP, retail sales, personal income, production, and employment. ... you're using BEA BLS FED data that dont have any link w/ reality.. here's real facts... #retail sales UP NO... according http://www.rockinst.org/ salex taxes down y/y about 10%.. those figures just dont square... #personal income NO.. according monthly treasury statement federal pers income tax down 20 % y/y..data from BEA is bullshit.. #employment. yes.. its bad... you dont understand how bad it is.. according daily treasury statement unemplyement benefits UP 200 pct y/y ( yes 200).. so real mothly losses still around 400,000 and still worse then bottom of 2001 -2002 resseion.. #GDP, dont get me started... 2009 FEDRAL DEFICIT IS freaking 1.9 $ trln.. 3 month deficit in 2010 fin year is about 400 bln $... course it up.. see cbo.gov well you get the picture.. alex …
et’s look at five areas: GDP, retail sales, personal income, production, and employment.
…

you’re using BEA BLS FED data that dont have any link w/ reality..
here’s real facts…

#retail sales UP
NO… according http://www.rockinst.org/ salex taxes down y/y about 10%.. those figures just dont square…

#personal income
NO.. according monthly treasury statement federal pers income tax down 20 % y/y..data from BEA is bullshit..

#employment.
yes.. its bad… you dont understand how bad it is..

according daily treasury statement unemplyement benefits UP 200 pct
y/y ( yes 200).. so real mothly losses still around 400,000 and still worse then bottom of 2001 -2002 resseion..

#GDP,
dont get me started… 2009 FEDRAL DEFICIT IS freaking 1.9 $ trln..
3 month deficit in 2010 fin year is about 400 bln $… course it up..
see cbo.gov

well you get the picture..
alex

]]> By: LavrentiBeria http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/01/readers-of-this-blog-expect-the-recession-to-last-redux.html#comment-58109 LavrentiBeria Sat, 16 Jan 2010 21:14:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=12830#comment-58109 Yes, and where debt forgiveness ought to be an idea that just shines through in an environment in which creditors have been so obviously responsible for the need for their taking such a step in the first place, the only alternatives will be debt repudiation and bankruptcy. Michael Hudson speaks of a debt jubilee, a splendid idea in my mind, but, then again, Hudson see things from a human perspective that gets short shrift, if that, from the political vermin in office solely to promote their careers through the accomodation of their campaign war chest paymasters. Perhaps there will come a day that the continued liberty of these creditors and their political butlers will depend on their willingness to embrace such a concept. While the law may exist at present for those that purchase it, a few years more of what we've just had and there may come a time where that notion gets turned on its head. Yes, and where debt forgiveness ought to be an idea that just shines through in an environment in which creditors have been so obviously responsible for the need for their taking such a step in the first place, the only alternatives will be debt repudiation and bankruptcy. Michael Hudson speaks of a debt jubilee, a splendid idea in my mind, but, then again, Hudson see things from a human perspective that gets short shrift, if that, from the political vermin in office solely to promote their careers through the accomodation of their campaign war chest paymasters. Perhaps there will come a day that the continued liberty of these creditors and their political butlers will depend on their willingness to embrace such a concept. While the law may exist at present for those that purchase it, a few years more of what we’ve just had and there may come a time where that notion gets turned on its head.

]]> By: Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/01/readers-of-this-blog-expect-the-recession-to-last-redux.html#comment-58108 Edward Harrison Sat, 16 Jan 2010 14:28:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=12830#comment-58108 The answer of course is acombination of debt forgiveness, bankruptcy and debt repudiation. Sent from my mobile phone The answer of course is acombination of debt forgiveness, bankruptcy and
debt repudiation.

Sent from my mobile phone

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/01/readers-of-this-blog-expect-the-recession-to-last-redux.html#comment-58107 Anonymous Sat, 16 Jan 2010 14:24:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=12830#comment-58107 Even if private debt is purged and reaches a more reasonable level within a few years thanks to a significant increase of private savings, how will you then start to reduce fiscal deficit without restarting the "private debt - credit economy" rationale? I understand that you suggest that deleveraging private debt and purging malinvestment would allow the resetting and restarting of the machine, but in a globalized economy where the secular trend is unit labour cost deflation, how will you then increase aggregated demand in the middle and long term without increasing private debt/GDP rate? Even if private debt is purged and reaches a more reasonable level within a few years thanks to a significant increase of private savings, how will you then start to reduce fiscal deficit without restarting the “private debt – credit economy” rationale?

I understand that you suggest that deleveraging private debt and purging malinvestment would allow the resetting and restarting of the machine, but in a globalized economy where the secular trend is unit labour cost deflation, how will you then increase aggregated demand in the middle and long term without increasing private debt/GDP rate?

]]> By: fresnodan http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/01/readers-of-this-blog-expect-the-recession-to-last-redux.html#comment-58106 fresnodan Sat, 16 Jan 2010 13:27:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=12830#comment-58106 The whole problem with GDP and rate of growth, is that it can be going up dramatically, but most people are still unemployed or under employed. It is very much like having 100 dollars in the market. It goes down 50% (you have 50$). It than goes up 60% - everybody goes on and on about how the market it way up. But look at how much in in your account (80$ now) - you are in fact worse off. Its in the interest of stock market shills not to be aware of this. Why it is in the interest of economists not to be aware of the analogous circumstance???? The whole problem with GDP and rate of growth, is that it can be going up dramatically, but most people are still unemployed or under employed.
It is very much like having 100 dollars in the market. It goes down 50% (you have 50$). It than goes up 60% – everybody goes on and on about how the market it way up. But look at how much in in your account (80$ now) – you are in fact worse off. Its in the interest of stock market shills not to be aware of this. Why it is in the interest of economists not to be aware of the analogous circumstance????

]]> By: demandside http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/01/readers-of-this-blog-expect-the-recession-to-last-redux.html#comment-58105 demandside Sat, 16 Jan 2010 05:17:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=12830#comment-58105 Not buying even the "technical" recovery. In the business cycle there needs to be investment. There is no investment. There needs to be credit growth. There is no credit growth. You have an increase in GDP simply because demand=supply and the federal government is demanding an extra 7.5 percent or something of GDP. If "recession" and "recovery" have any meaning, it is in the context of the business cycle. The business cycle is broken. It is lying under a mountain of debt. You can call it a recovery and maybe convince people that up is up, so it must be a recovery. But this economy is going nowhere, has no pulse, nor respiration. It is the zombie recovery. Not buying even the “technical” recovery. In the business cycle there needs to be investment. There is no investment. There needs to be credit growth. There is no credit growth.

You have an increase in GDP simply because demand=supply and the federal government is demanding an extra 7.5 percent or something of GDP. If “recession” and “recovery” have any meaning, it is in the context of the business cycle. The business cycle is broken.

It is lying under a mountain of debt. You can call it a recovery and maybe convince people that up is up, so it must be a recovery. But this economy is going nowhere, has no pulse, nor respiration. It is the zombie recovery.

]]> By: Advocatus Diaboli http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/01/readers-of-this-blog-expect-the-recession-to-last-redux.html#comment-58103 Advocatus Diaboli Fri, 15 Jan 2010 22:57:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=12830#comment-58103 Hey, What do you think about my post and commentary. Too many people still believe in the "they deserve it" and "it will never happen to me" fairy tales. Sometimes pictures can say what words cannot.. http://dissention.wordpress.com/2010/01/15/las-vegas-storm-drains/ Hey,

What do you think about my post and commentary. Too many people still believe in the “they deserve it” and “it will never happen to me” fairy tales.

Sometimes pictures can say what words cannot..

http://dissention.wordpress.com/2010/01/15/las-vegas-storm-drains/

]]> By: Stevie b. http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/01/readers-of-this-blog-expect-the-recession-to-last-redux.html#comment-58102 Stevie b. Fri, 15 Jan 2010 21:45:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=12830#comment-58102 Well Ed, I am an ignoramus, so as an ignoramus I respectfully disagree. There is no way stimulus will start to be withdrawn this year in anything but a token way. There is no way that the PTB will risk falling into the Japanese syndrome. If the consequences of inaction are a falling $, so very, very much the better - if they can get away with it, especially as so many other major developed currencies need to fall too. Let's just get to some inflation and then we can fight the next fight and hope like hell something comes along to bail us out - and it just might, as i alluded to previously. I am delighted to see that in voting for 2013, I was the bottom of the pile, so as a consequence I am embolded to feel I've got a sporting chance of being right. After all, just look at your previous poll! Well Ed, I am an ignoramus, so as an ignoramus I respectfully disagree. There is no way stimulus will start to be withdrawn this year in anything but a token way. There is no way that the PTB will risk falling into the Japanese syndrome. If the consequences of inaction are a falling $, so very, very much the better – if they can get away with it, especially as so many other major developed currencies need to fall too. Let’s just get to some inflation and then we can fight the next fight and hope like hell something comes along to bail us out – and it just might, as i alluded to previously.

I am delighted to see that in voting for 2013, I was the bottom of the pile, so as a consequence I am embolded to feel I’ve got a sporting chance of being right. After all, just look at your previous poll!

]]> By: Jo http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/01/readers-of-this-blog-expect-the-recession-to-last-redux.html#comment-58101 Jo Fri, 15 Jan 2010 20:21:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=12830#comment-58101 You are so right about what's coming; that's why we have to start dropping the regime-preservers (fbi,mi5 etc) right now. Alternatively, You are so right about what’s coming; that’s why we have to start dropping the regime-preservers (fbi,mi5 etc) right now.

Alternatively,

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