Who will the US export to especially if the dollar strengthens? Asia and LatAm are going to buy fewer US export products as Obama ramps-up various trade battles with China, India, Korea, Mexico, Brazil, etc. Strengthening dollar also means fewer European & Japanese tourists in the US.

Bullishness on Japan is consistent with Marc Faber’s stated views (ironic, eh?). Although weak yen helps Japanese exporters, I think the country’s current political situation is very dangerous.

No mention of ongoing city/county/state fiscal crises or CRE. Because of these factors I don’t see how unemployment drops below 9% so quickly except for permanent reductions in the labor force (perhaps due to Baby Boomer retirements?).

Don’t see why Helicopter Ben (as disciple/henchman to Greenspun) raises short rates with unemployment anywhere above 6%. See 2002-2007 economic recovery/interest rate cycle for evidence.

“No-Nukes” Obama is NOT going to endorse nuclear power – Wien overlooks the NIMBY factor in the energy industry (e.g. all energy assets are local so who is going to welcome new nuclear reactors in their city/county/state?). As much as I also hope for this initiative, what congressperson is going to vote for nuclear energy in an election year? Sounds like more Wall Street love for Obama in the same way they love the trading/market manipulation opportunities afforded by cap & tax.

Civil unrest in Iran pushes oil prices above $100 and retail gasoline toward $4 – see 2008 for resulting impact to the US economy.

Finally in terms of election, it’s plausible considering that the GOP in general still has it’s head up its @ss. However, liberal voter turnout will be down due to anger over corporate-friendly “reforms” and Obama’s expansion of the war. Meanwhile notoriously independent voters will be pissed by $4 gasoline, ongoing bailouts, multi-trillion $ deficits and still-high unemployment. Expect to see many Republicans elected simply because of the “R” next to their name on the ballot, whether or not it’s a net gain of 40 seats we shall see.

He was on the mark on some but completely missed the market meltdown.