Comments on: Unemployment rate recedes as worst of this downturn is over http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/12/unemployment-rate-recedes-as-worst-of-this-downturn-is-over.html Finance, Economics and Markets Fri, 10 Feb 2012 00:37:00 +0000 hourly 1 By: demandside http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/12/unemployment-rate-recedes-as-worst-of-this-downturn-is-over.html#comment-57712 demandside Sat, 05 Dec 2009 20:08:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/12/unemployment-rate-recedes-as-worst-of-this-downturn-is-over.html#comment-57712 Possibly. If you define "recovery" as "GDP growth." Defining "recovery" as anything to do with the business cycle, I don't think so. Hard for me to see a business cycle getting better with investment going down. Possibly. If you define “recovery” as “GDP growth.” Defining “recovery” as anything to do with the business cycle, I don’t think so. Hard for me to see a business cycle getting better with investment going down.

]]> By: Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/12/unemployment-rate-recedes-as-worst-of-this-downturn-is-over.html#comment-57711 Edward Harrison Sat, 05 Dec 2009 20:04:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/12/unemployment-rate-recedes-as-worst-of-this-downturn-is-over.html#comment-57711 The economy has just enough kick to it to rule out a double dip in the short term. However, by mid-2010 the factors I mentioned will combine with employment sluggishness in a deadly way. So I am clear about what the risks are, but they cannot stop the cyclical recovery until later in the year. The economy has just enough kick to it to rule out a double dip in the short
term. However, by mid-2010 the factors I mentioned will combine with
employment sluggishness in a deadly way. So I am clear about what the risks
are, but they cannot stop the cyclical recovery until later in the year.

]]> By: demandside http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/12/unemployment-rate-recedes-as-worst-of-this-downturn-is-over.html#comment-57710 demandside Sat, 05 Dec 2009 19:04:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/12/unemployment-rate-recedes-as-worst-of-this-downturn-is-over.html#comment-57710 I read it the other way, that the seasonal adjustment in a new seasonal context makes the unemployment number quite uncertain and likely to be higher than stated. Taking a look a the employment to population ratio, we see that there is no diminution of the nosedive. I don't believe stimulus spending on infrastructure comes out in "government" jobs. There is no doubt that the stimulus, between tax cuts, infrastructure spending, and support to states is essential to these numbers. I think your previous gloom ought not be so easily dispelled by this glimmer. A falling unemployment rate based on people dropping out of the workforce does not mean good things for the future. I read it the other way, that the seasonal adjustment in a new seasonal context makes the unemployment number quite uncertain and likely to be higher than stated. Taking a look a the employment to population ratio, we see that there is no diminution of the nosedive.

I don’t believe stimulus spending on infrastructure comes out in “government” jobs. There is no doubt that the stimulus, between tax cuts, infrastructure spending, and support to states is essential to these numbers.

I think your previous gloom ought not be so easily dispelled by this glimmer. A falling unemployment rate based on people dropping out of the workforce does not mean good things for the future.

]]>