Comments on: Seasonally-adjusted claims below 500,000 for third week http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/12/seasonally-adjusted-claims-below-500000-for-third-week.html Finance, Economics and Markets Fri, 10 Feb 2012 00:37:00 +0000 hourly 1 By: Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/12/seasonally-adjusted-claims-below-500000-for-third-week.html#comment-57743 Edward Harrison Fri, 11 Dec 2009 14:36:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/12/seasonally-adjusted-claims-below-500000-for-third-week.html#comment-57743 Brick, the seasonal-adjustment factors are set far in advance as I have said before. The discrepancy has a lot to do with the size of layoffs. That number is divided by the factor and multiplied by 100. So the larger the layoff, the larger the discrepancy. Brick, the seasonal-adjustment factors are set far in advance as I have said before. The discrepancy has a lot to do with the size of layoffs. That number is divided by the factor and multiplied by 100. So the larger the layoff, the larger the discrepancy.

]]> By: Brick http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/12/seasonally-adjusted-claims-below-500000-for-third-week.html#comment-57742 Brick Fri, 11 Dec 2009 14:21:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/12/seasonally-adjusted-claims-below-500000-for-third-week.html#comment-57742 Seasonal adjustment for the same week last year was roughly 200,000 this year it is about 190,000. This compares to seasonal adjustments in the range 120,000 to 140,000 for 2003-2007 in the same week. You should expect 6 days worth of claims in the week and some lay offs in retail which I would have estimated to put the seasonal adjustment at around 150,000 maximum. I have an uneasy feeling about this seasonal adjustment number for the week. I also have a feeling that short working weeks may be playing havoc with initial claims numbers, shifting from week to week and delaying claims. Seasonal adjustment for the same week last year was roughly 200,000 this year it is about 190,000. This compares to seasonal adjustments in the range 120,000 to 140,000 for 2003-2007 in the same week. You should expect 6 days worth of claims in the week and some lay offs in retail which I would have estimated to put the seasonal adjustment at around 150,000 maximum. I have an uneasy feeling about this seasonal adjustment number for the week. I also have a feeling that short working weeks may be playing havoc with initial claims numbers, shifting from week to week and delaying claims.

]]> By: Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/12/seasonally-adjusted-claims-below-500000-for-third-week.html#comment-57737 Edward Harrison Thu, 10 Dec 2009 21:41:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/12/seasonally-adjusted-claims-below-500000-for-third-week.html#comment-57737 Barry, I also updated the post to reflect the data on those on extended benefits - now at 10 million. Barry, I also updated the post to reflect the data on those on extended benefits – now at 10 million.

]]> By: Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/12/seasonally-adjusted-claims-below-500000-for-third-week.html#comment-57733 Edward Harrison Thu, 10 Dec 2009 19:07:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/12/seasonally-adjusted-claims-below-500000-for-third-week.html#comment-57733 You can track U-6 as a comprehensive measure of unemployment. It is now 17.2%. David Rosenberg believes the unusually large gap between the two cannot close by having U-6 fall. The base rate of unemployment must also rise to see a reversion to mean. That's why he sees unemployment much higher. We'll see. You can track U-6 as a comprehensive measure of unemployment. It is now 17.2%. David Rosenberg believes the unusually large gap between the two cannot close by having U-6 fall. The base rate of unemployment must also rise to see a reversion to mean. That’s why he sees unemployment much higher. We’ll see.

]]> By: barryschaeffer http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/12/seasonally-adjusted-claims-below-500000-for-third-week.html#comment-57732 barryschaeffer Thu, 10 Dec 2009 19:05:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/12/seasonally-adjusted-claims-below-500000-for-third-week.html#comment-57732 Edward, What has been the trend with the numbers of discouraged workers who are no longer tracked by the Labor Dept (i.e. those who fall off the roles)? I would think that this would be a critical parameter to follow. Barry Edward,

What has been the trend with the numbers of discouraged workers who are no longer tracked by the Labor Dept (i.e. those who fall off the roles)? I would think that this would be a critical parameter to follow.

Barry

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