Comments on: I am now moving from multi-year recovery to a double dip baseline

By: Triangulating on deficit reduction, 2010 version - Credit Writedowns

Triangulating on deficit reduction, 2010 version - Credit Writedowns — Tue, 26 Jan 2010 13:57:34 +0000

[...] Obama’s deficit measures – short-term measures that do not address systemic issues – are why I see double dip.Mark Thoma says:This is pretty disappointing.The long-term budget problem is due to primarily one [...]

By: Is the recession dating committee preparing for a double dip? - Credit Writedowns

Sun, 24 Jan 2010 14:34:44 +0000

[...] and confirmation bias in the econoblogosphere, May 2009What comes next is debatable at this point. I am expecting double dip – and not necessarily because of a lack of a multiplier.And, as to the technical, statistical, [...]

By: Grading Obama’s economic policy after one year - Credit Writedowns

Grading Obama’s economic policy after one year - Credit Writedowns — Wed, 20 Jan 2010 21:12:34 +0000

[...] its regulation because the political process is broken. The emphasis on deficit reduction means a double dip recession is a distinct likelihood. On both these issues, Obama’s centrist instincts make him an unlikely Roosevelt – either [...]

By: Obama: grading his first year’s economic performance « naked capitalism

Wed, 20 Jan 2010 21:12:10 +0000

By: Readers of this blog expect the recession to last redux - Credit Writedowns

Readers of this blog expect the recession to last redux - Credit Writedowns — Fri, 15 Jan 2010 19:25:03 +0000

[...] as I indicated. And if stimulus starts being withdrawn this year – as I believe it will be – expect a recession sooner than later. When this possibility comes into focus, the present cyclical bull market will come under pressure. [...]

By: Plan B Economics

Plan B Economics — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 10:38:08 +0000

…raise taxes or monetize the deficit. I believe the Fed will print the needed money.

Inflation will be a covert tax on the population.

By: Plan B Economics

Plan B Economics — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 03:38:08 +0000

…raise taxes or monetize the deficit. I believe the Fed will print the needed money.

Inflation will be a covert tax on the population.

By: fuguez

fuguez — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 16:54:27 +0000

I tend to believe that there is a 'human nature' element working here. Government is trying to please too many factions. There is an election dynamic that short-circuits medium and long-term thinking. That's life.

People were/are saying this is not Japan and after Ben Bernanke's impressive box of tricks, I thought that something might be different (not however a new secular bull market). After reading Richard Koo and a lot of the reports on Japan, now I can say "No Way".

The US is repeating the Japanese syndrome: the market will recover, the economy will follow (resulting in a few quarters of improving news) and just as things get better and people think we are out of the woods, we return to The Gloom. Not double, maybe not even triple, this will be a multiple-dip stop-start secular depression.

I tend to be more Austrian/Mellonist in my outlook, but even I know that will never happen from a political standpoint. This corporate welfare makes me seriously ill and I cant get why the Government acts as if social welfare is somehow worse. My Austrian outlook points the direction on how things should be reformed. This crony capitalism is simply vile to watch.

The multi-dip was, perhaps, inevitable.

By: John Nelson

John Nelson — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 16:09:09 +0000

Excellent commentary – history reflects these prior decisions and provides an opportunity to avoid those mistakes. At the same time, government is caught in a Catch-22 as we know Quantitative Easing can not continue at this rate and the Velocity of the money supply has yet to reach the consumer. The current rally is based on the expectation of continued QE and cheap money, I agree a second dip is inevitable with indications to cut off funds.

By: Jo

Jo — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 16:02:53 +0000

This is the problem with handouts; everyone, even educated commentators, come to expect it to last forever.

Well done the Administration you had do something right though unpopular eventually (if it happens, which I doubt).