Comments on: I am now moving from multi-year recovery to a double dip baseline http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/i-am-now-moving-from-multi-year-recovery-to-a-double-dip-baseline.html Finance, Economics and Markets Fri, 10 Feb 2012 00:37:00 +0000 hourly 1 By: Plan B Economics http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/i-am-now-moving-from-multi-year-recovery-to-a-double-dip-baseline.html#comment-57611 Plan B Economics Sun, 15 Nov 2009 05:38:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/i-am-now-moving-from-multi-year-recovery-to-a-double-dip-baseline.html#comment-57611 ...raise taxes or monetize the deficit. I believe the Fed will print the needed money. Inflation will be a covert tax on the population. …raise taxes or monetize the deficit. I believe the Fed will print the needed money.

Inflation will be a covert tax on the population.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/i-am-now-moving-from-multi-year-recovery-to-a-double-dip-baseline.html#comment-57603 Anonymous Fri, 13 Nov 2009 18:54:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/i-am-now-moving-from-multi-year-recovery-to-a-double-dip-baseline.html#comment-57603 I tend to believe that there is a 'human nature' element working here. Government is trying to please too many factions. There is an election dynamic that short-circuits medium and long-term thinking. That's life. People were/are saying this is not Japan and after Ben Bernanke's impressive box of tricks, I thought that something might be different (not however a new secular bull market). After reading Richard Koo and a lot of the reports on Japan, now I can say "No Way". The US is repeating the Japanese syndrome: the market will recover, the economy will follow (resulting in a few quarters of improving news) and just as things get better and people think we are out of the woods, we return to The Gloom. Not double, maybe not even triple, this will be a multiple-dip stop-start secular depression. I tend to be more Austrian/Mellonist in my outlook, but even I know that will never happen from a political standpoint. This corporate welfare makes me seriously ill and I cant get why the Government acts as if social welfare is somehow worse. My Austrian outlook points the direction on how things should be reformed. This crony capitalism is simply vile to watch. The multi-dip was, perhaps, inevitable. I tend to believe that there is a ‘human nature’ element working here. Government is trying to please too many factions. There is an election dynamic that short-circuits medium and long-term thinking. That’s life.

People were/are saying this is not Japan and after Ben Bernanke’s impressive box of tricks, I thought that something might be different (not however a new secular bull market). After reading Richard Koo and a lot of the reports on Japan, now I can say “No Way”.

The US is repeating the Japanese syndrome: the market will recover, the economy will follow (resulting in a few quarters of improving news) and just as things get better and people think we are out of the woods, we return to The Gloom. Not double, maybe not even triple, this will be a multiple-dip stop-start secular depression.

I tend to be more Austrian/Mellonist in my outlook, but even I know that will never happen from a political standpoint. This corporate welfare makes me seriously ill and I cant get why the Government acts as if social welfare is somehow worse. My Austrian outlook points the direction on how things should be reformed. This crony capitalism is simply vile to watch.

The multi-dip was, perhaps, inevitable.

]]> By: John Nelson http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/i-am-now-moving-from-multi-year-recovery-to-a-double-dip-baseline.html#comment-57600 John Nelson Fri, 13 Nov 2009 18:09:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/i-am-now-moving-from-multi-year-recovery-to-a-double-dip-baseline.html#comment-57600 Excellent commentary - history reflects these prior decisions and provides an opportunity to avoid those mistakes. At the same time, government is caught in a Catch-22 as we know Quantitative Easing can not continue at this rate and the Velocity of the money supply has yet to reach the consumer. The current rally is based on the expectation of continued QE and cheap money, I agree a second dip is inevitable with indications to cut off funds. Excellent commentary – history reflects these prior decisions and provides an opportunity to avoid those mistakes. At the same time, government is caught in a Catch-22 as we know Quantitative Easing can not continue at this rate and the Velocity of the money supply has yet to reach the consumer. The current rally is based on the expectation of continued QE and cheap money, I agree a second dip is inevitable with indications to cut off funds.

]]> By: Jo http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/i-am-now-moving-from-multi-year-recovery-to-a-double-dip-baseline.html#comment-57599 Jo Fri, 13 Nov 2009 18:02:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/i-am-now-moving-from-multi-year-recovery-to-a-double-dip-baseline.html#comment-57599 This is the problem with handouts; everyone, even educated commentators, come to expect it to last forever. Well done the Administration you had do something right though unpopular eventually (if it happens, which I doubt). This is the problem with handouts; everyone, even educated commentators, come to expect it to last forever.

Well done the Administration you had do something right though unpopular eventually (if it happens, which I doubt).

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