http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/evidence-that-governments-are-underplaying-peak-oil.html Finance, Economics and Markets Fri, 10 Feb 2012 00:37:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/evidence-that-governments-are-underplaying-peak-oil.html#comment-57560 Stevie b. Tue, 10 Nov 2009 22:03:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/evidence-that-governments-are-underplaying-peak-oil.html#comment-57560 @ pangea joel - I know nothing about solar power but find your comments and ramifications from them very interesting indeed - thanks! @ pangea joel – I know nothing about solar power but find your comments and ramifications from them very interesting indeed – thanks!

]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/evidence-that-governments-are-underplaying-peak-oil.html#comment-57558 Pangea Joel Tue, 10 Nov 2009 17:48:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/evidence-that-governments-are-underplaying-peak-oil.html#comment-57558 Oil prices might rise temporarily, but the price of solar power drops exponentially (>3X) every decade, as it has since the 1950's, when the first solar panels were put on the Vanguard 1 satellite at $300/Wp. Solar is already close to parity with US retail natural gas electricity today, within 5 years it will be cheaper than wholesale coal electricity. For the global south, solar is already cheaper than the existing grid in many countries. South Africa charges 35c/kWh and plans to raise it to 99c/kWh; solar electricity costs approximately 15c/kWh (assuming a 5-year amortization @ 5% interest and sun conditions like California). The amount of solar power rolled out every year worldwide continues to increase and once price parity with the grid is reached solar (along with wind) will account for almost all new electric power generation by 2012. Advances in batteries are accelerating rapidly, eg. IBM with lithium air's 10X energy density over Li-ion. Major automakers in Japan, China, and US are rolling out hybrid and all-electric vehicles. I agree with Deutsche Bank's estimate the global oil Demand will peak in 2016. I expect after that, becoming coal, oil, nukes and gas will trend towards becoming niche power sources by 2030, as solar will be 1/10 the price of coal by then. We are seeing Peak Oil Demand not Peak Oil Supply. Oil prices might rise temporarily, but the price of solar power drops exponentially (>3X) every decade, as it has since the 1950′s, when the first solar panels were put on the Vanguard 1 satellite at $300/Wp. Solar is already close to parity with US retail natural gas electricity today, within 5 years it will be cheaper than wholesale coal electricity. For the global south, solar is already cheaper than the existing grid in many countries. South Africa charges 35c/kWh and plans to raise it to 99c/kWh; solar electricity costs approximately 15c/kWh (assuming a 5-year amortization @ 5% interest and sun conditions like California). The amount of solar power rolled out every year worldwide continues to increase and once price parity with the grid is reached solar (along with wind) will account for almost all new electric power generation by 2012. Advances in batteries are accelerating rapidly, eg. IBM with lithium air’s 10X energy density over Li-ion. Major automakers in Japan, China, and US are rolling out hybrid and all-electric vehicles. I agree with Deutsche Bank’s estimate the global oil Demand will peak in 2016. I expect after that, becoming coal, oil, nukes and gas will trend towards becoming niche power sources by 2030, as solar will be 1/10 the price of coal by then. We are seeing Peak Oil Demand not Peak Oil Supply.

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