http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/bullish-data-recoveries-crashes-and-the-psychology-of-forecasting-redux.html a finance news and opinion site Sat, 20 Mar 2010 16:57:27 +0000 hourly 1 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/bullish-data-recoveries-crashes-and-the-psychology-of-forecasting-redux.html#comment-9714 ISM manufacturing survey points to more inventory gains - Credit Writedowns Wed, 03 Feb 2010 02:54:12 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/bullish-data-recoveries-crashes-and-the-psychology-of-forecasting-redux.html#comment-9714 [...] are as fake as the Greek numbers. I don’t know.  But, for me, this is a cyclical recovery. As I said in November:from my perspective, it is inventories which are the most bullish data points. The inventories data [...] [...] are as fake as the Greek numbers. I don’t know.  But, for me, this is a cyclical recovery. As I said in November:from my perspective, it is inventories which are the most bullish data points. The inventories data [...]

]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/bullish-data-recoveries-crashes-and-the-psychology-of-forecasting-redux.html#comment-8049 Edward Harrison Tue, 03 Nov 2009 07:58:15 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/bullish-data-recoveries-crashes-and-the-psychology-of-forecasting-redux.html#comment-8049 On the economic/financial side: A major spike in oil prices, a collapse OR spike in the U.S. dollar, longer-term double digit unemployment, stock market crash. On the political side: War or realized nuclear ambitions in Iran. These are probably the most well-known exogenous events that are risks. On the economic/financial side: A major spike in oil prices, a collapse OR spike in the U.S. dollar, longer-term double digit unemployment, stock market crash. On the political side: War or realized nuclear ambitions in Iran. These are probably the most well-known exogenous events that are risks.

]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/bullish-data-recoveries-crashes-and-the-psychology-of-forecasting-redux.html#comment-8048 Francis from Belgium Tue, 03 Nov 2009 01:13:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/bullish-data-recoveries-crashes-and-the-psychology-of-forecasting-redux.html#comment-8048 In your opinion what kind of event or situation could start the unravelling of the current carry trade? In your opinion what kind of event or situation could start the unravelling of the current carry trade?

]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/bullish-data-recoveries-crashes-and-the-psychology-of-forecasting-redux.html#comment-8047 Francis from Belgium Tue, 03 Nov 2009 01:12:36 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/bullish-data-recoveries-crashes-and-the-psychology-of-forecasting-redux.html#comment-8047 In your opinion what kind of event or situation could start the unravelling of the current carry trade? In your opinion what kind of event or situation could start the unravelling of the current carry trade?

]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/bullish-data-recoveries-crashes-and-the-psychology-of-forecasting-redux.html#comment-7057 Edward Harrison Tue, 03 Nov 2009 00:58:15 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/bullish-data-recoveries-crashes-and-the-psychology-of-forecasting-redux.html#comment-7057 On the economic/financial side: A major spike in oil prices, a collapse OR spike in the U.S. dollar, longer-term double digit unemployment, stock market crash. On the political side: War or realized nuclear ambitions in Iran. These are probably the most well-known exogenous events that are risks. On the economic/financial side: A major spike in oil prices, a collapse OR spike in the U.S. dollar, longer-term double digit unemployment, stock market crash. On the political side: War or realized nuclear ambitions in Iran. These are probably the most well-known exogenous events that are risks.

]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/bullish-data-recoveries-crashes-and-the-psychology-of-forecasting-redux.html#comment-7056 Francis from Belgium Mon, 02 Nov 2009 18:13:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/bullish-data-recoveries-crashes-and-the-psychology-of-forecasting-redux.html#comment-7056 In your opinion what kind of event or situation could start the unravelling of the current carry trade? In your opinion what kind of event or situation could start the unravelling of the current carry trade?

]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/bullish-data-recoveries-crashes-and-the-psychology-of-forecasting-redux.html#comment-7055 Francis from Belgium Mon, 02 Nov 2009 18:12:36 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/11/bullish-data-recoveries-crashes-and-the-psychology-of-forecasting-redux.html#comment-7055 In your opinion what kind of event or situation could start the unravelling of the current carry trade? In your opinion what kind of event or situation could start the unravelling of the current carry trade?

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