Comments on: Is the Fed just jawboning? http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/10/is-the-fed-just-jawboning.html Finance, Economics and Markets Thu, 09 Feb 2012 21:54:06 +0000 hourly 1 By: Hyperinflation, national bankruptcy, dollar crash and other exaggerations « naked capitalism http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/10/is-the-fed-just-jawboning.html#comment-6839 Hyperinflation, national bankruptcy, dollar crash and other exaggerations « naked capitalism Wed, 14 Oct 2009 23:17:50 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/10/is-the-fed-just-jawboning.html#comment-6839 [...] hope this argument sounds familiar because it is one I made when I asked is the Fed just jawboning? The U.S. wants – it needs a lower dollar to avoid deflation. Quantitative easing is not solving [...] [...] hope this argument sounds familiar because it is one I made when I asked is the Fed just jawboning? The U.S. wants – it needs a lower dollar to avoid deflation. Quantitative easing is not solving [...]

]]> By: Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/10/is-the-fed-just-jawboning.html#comment-57311 Edward Harrison Wed, 14 Oct 2009 01:44:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/10/is-the-fed-just-jawboning.html#comment-57311 I think deficit spending is done. The will will not return because we are adding double digit percentage deficits to GDP. I said in january that Obama gets one shot at major stimulus spending and that's it. If we get a second dip, that's all she wrote, Barry. I think deficit spending is done. The will will not return because we are adding double digit percentage deficits to GDP. I said in january that Obama gets one shot at major stimulus spending and that’s it. If we get a second dip, that’s all she wrote, Barry.

]]> By: Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/10/is-the-fed-just-jawboning.html#comment-57310 Edward Harrison Wed, 14 Oct 2009 01:42:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/10/is-the-fed-just-jawboning.html#comment-57310 Emerging markets have zoomed even further than American markets. I see them as not-yet de-coupled and very high beta. That means they are great during the upswing, but vulnerable to crashes during downswings. Over the longer-term, EM should outperform as many countries in Asia in particular have better growth potential. You also look at a country like Brazil and you don't see a lot of the demographic problems you get in the likes of Russia and China. The same is true in India. Emerging markets have zoomed even further than American markets. I see them as not-yet de-coupled and very high beta. That means they are great during the upswing, but vulnerable to crashes during downswings. Over the longer-term, EM should outperform as many countries in Asia in particular have better growth potential. You also look at a country like Brazil and you don’t see a lot of the demographic problems you get in the likes of Russia and China. The same is true in India.

]]> By: barryschaeffer http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/10/is-the-fed-just-jawboning.html#comment-57292 barryschaeffer Fri, 09 Oct 2009 20:27:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/10/is-the-fed-just-jawboning.html#comment-57292 Edward, In your view, how will emerging markets (for both equity and debt) behave in your "Recession is Over;Depression is just beginning" scenario? After all, don't many emerging markets have much stronger banks and a less indebted home sector? Barry Edward,

In your view, how will emerging markets (for both equity and debt) behave in your “Recession is Over;Depression is just beginning” scenario? After all, don’t many emerging markets have much stronger banks and a less indebted home sector?

Barry

]]> By: barryschaeffer http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/10/is-the-fed-just-jawboning.html#comment-57291 barryschaeffer Fri, 09 Oct 2009 17:58:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/10/is-the-fed-just-jawboning.html#comment-57291 Edward, A lot of smart people (T2 Associates, Alan Abelson, others) are predicting two more big waves of problems in the home mortgage space in 2010 and 2011, especially Alt-A and Option-ARM resets. It seems to my feeble brain that the Political Will to finance more big deficits will materialize when the first of these waves crashes ashore. Are my facts or my analysis flawed? Barry Edward,

A lot of smart people (T2 Associates, Alan Abelson, others) are predicting two more big waves of problems in the home mortgage space in 2010 and 2011, especially Alt-A and Option-ARM resets.

It seems to my feeble brain that the Political Will to finance more big deficits will materialize when the first of these waves crashes ashore.

Are my facts or my analysis flawed?

Barry

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