Comments on: Unemployment claims falling faster than in half of past recessions http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/08/unemployment-claims-falling-faster-than-in-half-of-past-recessions.html Finance, Economics and Markets Fri, 10 Feb 2012 00:37:00 +0000 hourly 1 By: doctorx http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/08/unemployment-claims-falling-faster-than-in-half-of-past-recessions.html#comment-56957 doctorx Sat, 29 Aug 2009 21:12:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/08/unemployment-claims-falling-faster-than-in-half-of-past-recessions.html#comment-56957 Thanks Sounds right re layoffs- Healthcare only sector not down-sizing A friend is a director of a mid-sized old-line public company.? The stock is up 5X since the March low.? Market value is about 20X tangible book.? Nominal dividend that it can't afford.? Worsening losses and worsened earnings estimates.? Internally, the company, which makes discretionary consumer products stuff, projects no turn in business till 2011.? They may not survive!? For sure they will not hire till there is a durable improvement in their business.? IMO their stock price was reasonable at its March pricing.? Thanks
Sounds right re layoffs-
Healthcare only sector not down-sizing
A friend is a director of a mid-sized old-line public company.? The stock is up 5X since the March low.? Market value is about 20X tangible book.? Nominal dividend that it can’t afford.? Worsening losses and worsened earnings estimates.? Internally, the company, which makes discretionary consumer products stuff, projects no turn in business till 2011.? They may not survive!? For sure they will not hire till there is a durable improvement in their business.? IMO their stock price was reasonable at its March pricing.?

]]> By: Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/08/unemployment-claims-falling-faster-than-in-half-of-past-recessions.html#comment-56955 Edward Harrison Sat, 29 Aug 2009 15:33:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/08/unemployment-claims-falling-faster-than-in-half-of-past-recessions.html#comment-56955 That is a good suggestion. I will look to do this next week. I also want to look at continuing claims and the exhaustion of benefits. The evidence seems to indicate it is slow hiring, rather than massive job cuts that makes this recession especially severe. That is a good suggestion. I will look to do this next week. I also want to look at continuing claims and the exhaustion of benefits. The evidence seems to indicate it is slow hiring, rather than massive job cuts that makes this recession especially severe.

]]> By: Anonymous http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/08/unemployment-claims-falling-faster-than-in-half-of-past-recessions.html#comment-56939 Anonymous Fri, 28 Aug 2009 01:41:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/08/unemployment-claims-falling-faster-than-in-half-of-past-recessions.html#comment-56939 Ed Great website. How does tax withholdings compare to past recessions? I see the current withholdings are down something like -10.70% This appears to be a large number. Ed Great website. How does tax withholdings compare to past recessions?
I see the current withholdings are down something like -10.70%
This appears to be a large number.

]]> By: doctorx http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/08/unemployment-claims-falling-faster-than-in-half-of-past-recessions.html#comment-56938 doctorx Thu, 27 Aug 2009 21:48:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/08/unemployment-claims-falling-faster-than-in-half-of-past-recessions.html#comment-56938 Nice analysis; thanks, Ed. What if you turn the data another way and look at how quickly initial claims are returning to the previous baseline? In other words, the 2001 recession was mild, so a 19% drop from the worst level brought it I would think much closer to the starting level than the current one. In another vein, did it not still take over 2 yrs from the end of the 2001 recession for total employment to reach its prior peak? What would your projection be on that metric (if you have one), and how does that compare to prior recoveries? Thanks! Nice analysis; thanks, Ed.

What if you turn the data another way and look at how quickly initial claims are returning to the previous baseline? In other words, the 2001 recession was mild, so a 19% drop from the worst level brought it I would think much closer to the starting level than the current one.

In another vein, did it not still take over 2 yrs from the end of the 2001 recession for total employment to reach its prior peak? What would your projection be on that metric (if you have one), and how does that compare to prior recoveries?

Thanks!

]]> By: Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/08/unemployment-claims-falling-faster-than-in-half-of-past-recessions.html#comment-56937 Edward Harrison Thu, 27 Aug 2009 20:19:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/08/unemployment-claims-falling-faster-than-in-half-of-past-recessions.html#comment-56937 The initial claims data doesn't worry me. It is the length of unemployment and the number of people exhausting benefits. I will try and look at the data there and see if it paints another picture. The initial claims data doesn’t worry me. It is the length of unemployment and the number of people exhausting benefits. I will try and look at the data there and see if it paints another picture.

]]> By: OregonGuy http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/08/unemployment-claims-falling-faster-than-in-half-of-past-recessions.html#comment-56936 OregonGuy Thu, 27 Aug 2009 19:33:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/08/unemployment-claims-falling-faster-than-in-half-of-past-recessions.html#comment-56936 Edward, Perhaps you should worry. Those two jobless recoveries morphed into huge financial bubbles. Coincidence? Edward,

Perhaps you should worry. Those two jobless recoveries morphed into huge financial bubbles. Coincidence?

]]> By: Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/08/unemployment-claims-falling-faster-than-in-half-of-past-recessions.html#comment-56934 Edward Harrison Thu, 27 Aug 2009 15:00:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/08/unemployment-claims-falling-faster-than-in-half-of-past-recessions.html#comment-56934 On a percent basis its 80, 82, and 2001 that saw better snap backs. That puts us in the middle as opposed to what I would have expected is at the bottom. On a percent basis its 80, 82, and 2001 that saw better snap backs. That puts us in the middle as opposed to what I would have expected is at the bottom.

]]> By: GlassHalfEmpty http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/08/unemployment-claims-falling-faster-than-in-half-of-past-recessions.html#comment-56933 GlassHalfEmpty Thu, 27 Aug 2009 14:28:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/08/unemployment-claims-falling-faster-than-in-half-of-past-recessions.html#comment-56933 So 20 weeks after the peak, initial claims are still higher than peak in all except the 1980 and 1982 recessions. So 20 weeks after the peak, initial claims are still higher than peak in all except the 1980 and 1982 recessions.

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