Comments on: Discerning a real from a fake, technical, statistical, or partial recovery http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/08/discerning-a-real-from-a-fake-technical-statistical-or-partial-recovery.html Finance, Economics and Markets Fri, 10 Feb 2012 00:37:00 +0000 hourly 1 By: Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/08/discerning-a-real-from-a-fake-technical-statistical-or-partial-recovery.html#comment-56869 Edward Harrison Thu, 20 Aug 2009 16:13:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/08/discerning-a-real-from-a-fake-technical-statistical-or-partial-recovery.html#comment-56869 aitrader, I have been meaning to reply to you for some time and I will give it a lot more thought and perhaps a post when I have a bit more time next week. I heard Prechter on Bloomberg talking about $10 oil and all of that. I am sceptical about a lot of the specifics of what he says because he has been saying the same types of thing for so long. The guy's timing has been way off for years, so it's hard to believe he is accurate. That said, his macro thesis does make a lot of sense and so I incorporate what kernels of truth I can glean from him into my understanding, but I am cautious about accepting any of his market calls. The $10 oil call seems far-fetched to me. Still, it has been duly registered and has been food for thought since. aitrader, I have been meaning to reply to you for some time and I will give it a lot more thought and perhaps a post when I have a bit more time next week. I heard Prechter on Bloomberg talking about $10 oil and all of that. I am sceptical about a lot of the specifics of what he says because he has been saying the same types of thing for so long.

The guy’s timing has been way off for years, so it’s hard to believe he is accurate. That said, his macro thesis does make a lot of sense and so I incorporate what kernels of truth I can glean from him into my understanding, but I am cautious about accepting any of his market calls.

The $10 oil call seems far-fetched to me. Still, it has been duly registered and has been food for thought since.

]]> By: aitrader http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/08/discerning-a-real-from-a-fake-technical-statistical-or-partial-recovery.html#comment-56854 aitrader Tue, 18 Aug 2009 08:00:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/08/discerning-a-real-from-a-fake-technical-statistical-or-partial-recovery.html#comment-56854 Yep. The consumer is king. And the king is on life support. As you know I am quite cynical to the chorus of voices singing "recovery, recovery". Your views seem to be in line with Roubini's, who has stated for quite a while that the recovery in H2 2009 will be meager and sluggish and, "won't feel like a recovery for many." What are your views on Prechter's (of Elliott Wave) view that we will retest the March 2009 lows, the dollar will rise, and oil prices will tank? Yep. The consumer is king. And the king is on life support. As you know I am quite cynical to the chorus of voices singing “recovery, recovery”.

Your views seem to be in line with Roubini’s, who has stated for quite a while that the recovery in H2 2009 will be meager and sluggish and, “won’t feel like a recovery for many.”

What are your views on Prechter’s (of Elliott Wave) view that we will retest the March 2009 lows, the dollar will rise, and oil prices will tank?

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