Comments on: GDP benchmark revisions coming on Friday

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 14:51:00 +0000

Given that so many economists are revising up their GDP estimates, I’m surprised the gold price is doing so well, as described here: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601116&sid=aA3eLD2EZ5CM

By: Terry

Terry — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 12:14:00 +0000

Call me cynical, but I expect the BEA re-do will show things were better than we thought they were–and will be better going forward. Not in the several decades I have been somewhat interested in these things have USG revisions to statistical methodologies showed the US economy in a worse light. Take a look at the changes in counting the unemployed, in measuring inflation, in tracking the money supply,….

We’re living in an increasingly Orwellian world.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 02:38:00 +0000

Thanks Edward.

By: Edward Harrison

Edward Harrison — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 01:36:00 +0000

These numbers are going to be a true wildcard because of the revisions, because of the gov’t spending and because we are at a unique point where at any time positive GDP is a distinct possibility. At this point, I expect an upside surprise and growth very close to zero. July is tracking positive growth so far so I fully expect Q3 to be positive. If Q4 comes in positive as well, then the recession might end up getting dated in June.

The keys to me will be the personal income revisions and the next ISM survey out soon. If both are good numbers then we are probably very near the end of recession (despite my Q4 or Q1 call).

A lot of question marks right now, but we are getting ever closer to a technical recovery.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 01:25:00 +0000

Hi Edward,

Do you think Gov spending will offset the decline in corporate (& gov) revenue and cosumer spending?

Bloomberg reports the consensus estimate for Q/Q growth to be at -0.7%.

I would truly appreciate it if I could gather some insights from you.

Thanks,