http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/06/initial-claims-hit-lowest-in-5-months-continuing-claims-hit-record.html Finance, Economics and Markets Fri, 10 Feb 2012 00:37:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/06/initial-claims-hit-lowest-in-5-months-continuing-claims-hit-record.html#comment-56563 Edward Harrison Thu, 11 Jun 2009 16:19:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/06/initial-claims-hit-lowest-in-5-months-continuing-claims-hit-record.html#comment-56563 I define recovery simply as the end of recession as defined by the NBER. In all likelihood, they will not call this until well into 2010. In anticipating their call, we will need to see improvement across four areas: employment, consumption, output, and income. Right now, it is looking like income and consumption may have already bottomed. Since these are leading indicators, we should expect output and employment to follow unless we get an unforeseen large economic shock. I define recovery simply as the end of recession as defined by the NBER. In all likelihood, they will not call this until well into 2010. In anticipating their call, we will need to see improvement across four areas: employment, consumption, output, and income. Right now, it is looking like income and consumption may have already bottomed. Since these are leading indicators, we should expect output and employment to follow unless we get an unforeseen large economic shock.

]]> http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/06/initial-claims-hit-lowest-in-5-months-continuing-claims-hit-record.html#comment-56559 Jake Thu, 11 Jun 2009 15:24:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/06/initial-claims-hit-lowest-in-5-months-continuing-claims-hit-record.html#comment-56559 Define recovery. Flat GDP, GDP back to the old trend, GDP per capita growing at 2%? Define recovery. Flat GDP, GDP back to the old trend, GDP per capita growing at 2%?

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