Comments on: Rogers: Bail on the dollar and equities http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/rogers-bail-on-the-dollar-and-equities.html a finance news and opinion site Sun, 21 Mar 2010 18:21:48 +0000 hourly 1 By: pobaldyhttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/rogers-bail-on-the-dollar-and-equities.html#comment-8338 pobaldy Sat, 16 May 2009 05:33:41 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/rogers-bail-on-the-dollar-and-equities.html#comment-8338 the dollar has been in a downtrend for as long as he's been saying it's so. timing is anybody's guess, but the rally from last year makes shorting the dollar worth repeating. the dollar has been in a downtrend for as long as he's been saying it's so. timing is anybody's guess, but the rally from last year makes shorting the dollar worth repeating.

]]> By: pobaldyhttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/rogers-bail-on-the-dollar-and-equities.html#comment-5694 pobaldy Fri, 15 May 2009 23:33:41 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/rogers-bail-on-the-dollar-and-equities.html#comment-5694 the dollar has been in a downtrend for as long as he's been saying it's so. timing is anybody's guess, but the rally from last year makes shorting the dollar worth repeating. the dollar has been in a downtrend for as long as he's been saying it's so. timing is anybody's guess, but the rally from last year makes shorting the dollar worth repeating.

]]> By: pobaldyhttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/rogers-bail-on-the-dollar-and-equities.html#comment-5240 pobaldy Fri, 15 May 2009 22:33:41 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/rogers-bail-on-the-dollar-and-equities.html#comment-5240 the dollar has been in a downtrend for as long as he's been saying it's so. timing is anybody's guess, but the rally from last year makes shorting the dollar worth repeating. the dollar has been in a downtrend for as long as he's been saying it's so. timing is anybody's guess, but the rally from last year makes shorting the dollar worth repeating.

]]> By: fxquanthttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/rogers-bail-on-the-dollar-and-equities.html#comment-5226 fxquant Wed, 13 May 2009 13:26:04 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/rogers-bail-on-the-dollar-and-equities.html#comment-5226 Rogers is a perma-USD bear. He has vocally negative any and everything US oriented for at least the five or six years. Nothing new here, keep on moving. Rogers is a perma-USD bear. He has vocally negative any and everything US oriented for at least the five or six years. Nothing new here, keep on moving.

]]> By: John Feierhttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/rogers-bail-on-the-dollar-and-equities.html#comment-5223 John Feier Tue, 12 May 2009 18:37:49 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/rogers-bail-on-the-dollar-and-equities.html#comment-5223 I'm not sure that the dollar is falling due to quantitative easing as much as it by the twin deficits--the federal budget deficit and the trade deficit. Like Mish has said, this quantitative easing is not going to be an inflationary factor until after the banks start lending all this "new" money. But the banks are NOT lending. They're hoarding. Until they stop hoarding, it would be just like printing a bunch of money and then burying it in your back yard. <br><br>The dollar could still fall even in the face of all this deflationary pressure just based purely on the federal and trade deficits. I'm not sure that the dollar is falling due to quantitative easing as much as it by the twin deficits–the federal budget deficit and the trade deficit. Like Mish has said, this quantitative easing is not going to be an inflationary factor until after the banks start lending all this “new” money. But the banks are NOT lending. They're hoarding. Until they stop hoarding, it would be just like printing a bunch of money and then burying it in your back yard.

The dollar could still fall even in the face of all this deflationary pressure just based purely on the federal and trade deficits.

]]> By: sobershttp://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/rogers-bail-on-the-dollar-and-equities.html#comment-5222 sobers Tue, 12 May 2009 16:55:32 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/rogers-bail-on-the-dollar-and-equities.html#comment-5222 I think we are in a similar position to several years ago, before the housing bubble burst. Anyone with a brain could what the figures were saying, but if you said 'House prices will fall, possibly crash' you were looked at as some sort of lunatic, with Cassandra tendancies.<br><br>The figures (on debt levels, mortage equity withdrawal levels, house price to earnings ratios, etc etc) were right then, and the figures aren't lying now. Such massive rises in government spending and borrowing, coupled with printing imaginary money can only lead to rising inflation, at levels not seen since the 1970s, possibly worse, and a falling currency.<br><br>When this will occur is uncertain - we managed to delude ourselves with house prices long after I thought it obvious that they were too high, so the markets may stick their fingers in their ears and ignore reality for some time yet. But just like the housing and then banking crash, the result will be the same. Eventually events and fact will dispel the illusion of calm, creating a catastropic loss of confidence in the currency, and a spiral of rising inflation, possibly even hyperinflation. I think we are in a similar position to several years ago, before the housing bubble burst. Anyone with a brain could what the figures were saying, but if you said 'House prices will fall, possibly crash' you were looked at as some sort of lunatic, with Cassandra tendancies.

The figures (on debt levels, mortage equity withdrawal levels, house price to earnings ratios, etc etc) were right then, and the figures aren't lying now. Such massive rises in government spending and borrowing, coupled with printing imaginary money can only lead to rising inflation, at levels not seen since the 1970s, possibly worse, and a falling currency.

When this will occur is uncertain – we managed to delude ourselves with house prices long after I thought it obvious that they were too high, so the markets may stick their fingers in their ears and ignore reality for some time yet. But just like the housing and then banking crash, the result will be the same. Eventually events and fact will dispel the illusion of calm, creating a catastropic loss of confidence in the currency, and a spiral of rising inflation, possibly even hyperinflation.

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