Comments on: Has the increase in U.S. jobless claims peaked? http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/03/has-the-increase-in-us-jobless-claims-peaked.html Finance, Economics and Markets Fri, 10 Feb 2012 00:37:00 +0000 hourly 1 By: Jobless indicator: Is the recession ending? | csmonitor.com http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/03/has-the-increase-in-us-jobless-claims-peaked.html#comment-5151 Jobless indicator: Is the recession ending? | csmonitor.com Fri, 08 May 2009 11:52:53 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=7249#comment-5151 [...] of the recession. (Thanks to Edward Harrison of the Credit Writedowns blog for reporting on this here, here, and [...] [...] of the recession. (Thanks to Edward Harrison of the Credit Writedowns blog for reporting on this here, here, and [...]

]]> By: Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/03/has-the-increase-in-us-jobless-claims-peaked.html#comment-4476 Edward Harrison Fri, 20 Mar 2009 17:23:09 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=7249#comment-4476 Terry, Interesting read on the seasonality of things. I would agree that seasonal factors would make it harder to pin things down in the summer. That's why I think the reprieve we could have by then won't necessarily last when September rolls around. As for optimism, I'm in a wait and see mode as well. The data are not clear as to where we're headed and much depends on the policy response, doesn't it? Cheers. Edward Terry,

Interesting read on the seasonality of things. I would agree that seasonal factors would make it harder to pin things down in the summer. That’s why I think the reprieve we could have by then won’t necessarily last when September rolls around.

As for optimism, I’m in a wait and see mode as well. The data are not clear as to where we’re headed and much depends on the policy response, doesn’t it?

Cheers.

Edward

]]> By: Terry http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/03/has-the-increase-in-us-jobless-claims-peaked.html#comment-4475 Terry Fri, 20 Mar 2009 17:04:12 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/?p=7249#comment-4475 Thank you for this article. I have been tracking the weekly changes since the beginning of the year and have focused on the NSA numbers. I agree with you that NSA unemployment should stabilize in the next 1-3 months, but I see that as a function of seasonality: Summer employment and graduate of high school and college getting jobs circa June. If it doesn't stabilize, that would be an omen that the economy is still falling rather substantially. Aside from stability in June, the next question is whether NSA unemployment spikes again in the autumn as those summer employees are laid off. I dunno, but I'm not yet optimistic. Thank you for this article. I have been tracking the weekly changes since the beginning of the year and have focused on the NSA numbers.

I agree with you that NSA unemployment should stabilize in the next 1-3 months, but I see that as a function of seasonality: Summer employment and graduate of high school and college getting jobs circa June. If it doesn’t stabilize, that would be an omen that the economy is still falling rather substantially.

Aside from stability in June, the next question is whether NSA unemployment spikes again in the autumn as those summer employees are laid off. I dunno, but I’m not yet optimistic.

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