No economy recovery = no inflation
no inflation = bear in commodity

After the house bubble busted in Japan in 1990, there is still no sign that Japan's economy gets any better. Why would you think the U.S., the UK and europe can recover in a few years? China and India without the rest of the world are difficult to recover and push the commodity market up.

mL

The $10 number is an extreme example of a cyclical low. I don't see oil falling to those levels again. (I didn't anticipate $35 either, so what the heck). Interestingly, my bogey for oil, $25, is the midpoint of the old OPEC $22-28 optimal range before oil started to go through the roof.

Oil is very volatile, but I am a believer in the commodity bull market returning after the emerging economies work their way through this crisis. That includes all industrial commodities and oil as well.

What makes you think oil at 30s are extremely low? Can't you remember oil was $10 in 1998?
There are signs that companies rent supertankers to hoard oil. The spot price is about $36 while the futures at NYMEX $42.57 March & $47.02 April. That is if you can store the oil for two/three months you can gain 16.6-30% minus the rents & running cost. Good return without much risk. buy oil at the spot market now and store it in somewhere for 2-3 months.

EconomicPic raised why the OPEC not save the oil themselves for two/months and earn the extra 30% more later. He suggested it is because the OPEC countries are desperated to get short money to solve their immediate problems.

Oil in 1998 in average was $10. Given 3% of annual inflation, oil can get down to $13.5. Of course, it is extreme and unrealistic. I believe mid 20 is the bottom and probably will touch early 20.

mL