Comments on: Brace yourself! http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/09/brace-yourself.html Finance, Economics and Markets Thu, 09 Feb 2012 08:49:33 +0000 hourly 1 By: Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/09/brace-yourself.html#comment-290 Edward Harrison Mon, 15 Sep 2008 14:00:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/09/brace-yourself.html#comment-290 LEH’s top unsecured creditorsDrumroll, please.<br/><br/>RTRS - Citigroup, Bank of New York Mellon, Azora Bank, Mizuho Financial Group, among Lehman’s top unsecured creditors.<br/>RTRS - Citigroup, Bank of New York Mellon hold about $138bln of Lehman’s bond debt as indenture trustees, under LBHI senior notes.<br/><br/><br/>This comes from FT Alphaville:<br/><br/>http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/09/15/15866/lehs-top-unsecured-creditors/?source=rss LEH’s top unsecured creditorsDrumroll, please.

RTRS – Citigroup, Bank of New York Mellon, Azora Bank, Mizuho Financial Group, among Lehman’s top unsecured creditors.
RTRS – Citigroup, Bank of New York Mellon hold about $138bln of Lehman’s bond debt as indenture trustees, under LBHI senior notes.

This comes from FT Alphaville:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/09/15/15866/lehs-top-unsecured-creditors/?source=rss

]]> By: dearieme http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/09/brace-yourself.html#comment-289 dearieme Mon, 15 Sep 2008 13:02:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/09/brace-yourself.html#comment-289 "country club" prison space; bah! Are you bullish on rope and lampposts? “country club” prison space; bah! Are you bullish on rope and lampposts?

]]> By: MAB http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/09/brace-yourself.html#comment-288 MAB Mon, 15 Sep 2008 12:49:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/09/brace-yourself.html#comment-288 Ed,<br/><br/>Bond holders are going to take haircuts here. No if ands or buts. That should stress test the derivatives market. <br/><br/>I fully expect many swaps are not worth the paper they are printed on. <br/><br/>De-leveraging is accelerating. I welcome the end of the foolishness. Watch the currency markets too. Global currency warfare will make re-flation much more difficult.<br/><br/>On a brighter note, I'm bullish on "country club" prison space! Ed,

Bond holders are going to take haircuts here. No if ands or buts. That should stress test the derivatives market.

I fully expect many swaps are not worth the paper they are printed on.

De-leveraging is accelerating. I welcome the end of the foolishness. Watch the currency markets too. Global currency warfare will make re-flation much more difficult.

On a brighter note, I’m bullish on “country club” prison space!

]]> By: Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/09/brace-yourself.html#comment-287 Edward Harrison Mon, 15 Sep 2008 12:27:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/09/brace-yourself.html#comment-287 At this point, it's hard to say what those assets are worth because assets are deflating and may go below intrinsic value as the mood turns towards bearishness.<br/><br/>As I have been saying, inflation is not the concern, it is deflation that should worry us:<br/><br/>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/06/credit-deflation-and-japanese-problem.html<br/><br/>http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/06/japanese-problem-is-now-ours.html<br/><br/>I do think that Lehman and AIG probably have the worst balance sheets of the lot because of the CDS and CRE exposure. Merrill is probably a decent buy, but not necessarily at $29 a share.<br/><br/>I had thought WaMu would survive a while longer but they are now going to fail in all likelihood. Too many Alt-A assets to be marked down.<br/><br/>The Fed needs to force consolidation so that we get as much from that as we do from bankruptcy and liquidation. The Merrill deal is the best case scenario. The Lehman situation is the worst from an industry-wide perspective.<br/><br/>Thoughts, concerns, wishes? At this point, it’s hard to say what those assets are worth because assets are deflating and may go below intrinsic value as the mood turns towards bearishness.

As I have been saying, inflation is not the concern, it is deflation that should worry us:

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/06/credit-deflation-and-japanese-problem.html

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/06/japanese-problem-is-now-ours.html

I do think that Lehman and AIG probably have the worst balance sheets of the lot because of the CDS and CRE exposure. Merrill is probably a decent buy, but not necessarily at $29 a share.

I had thought WaMu would survive a while longer but they are now going to fail in all likelihood. Too many Alt-A assets to be marked down.

The Fed needs to force consolidation so that we get as much from that as we do from bankruptcy and liquidation. The Merrill deal is the best case scenario. The Lehman situation is the worst from an industry-wide perspective.

Thoughts, concerns, wishes?

]]> By: Sobers http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/09/brace-yourself.html#comment-286 Sobers Mon, 15 Sep 2008 12:21:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/09/brace-yourself.html#comment-286 The Banks mentioned may have a lot of so called assets, but how much are they really worth, rather than the inflated valuations based on wishful thinking? And how many liabilities? It isn't a positive number I suspect if you compare those two figures. The Banks mentioned may have a lot of so called assets, but how much are they really worth, rather than the inflated valuations based on wishful thinking? And how many liabilities? It isn’t a positive number I suspect if you compare those two figures.

]]> By: Edward Harrison http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/09/brace-yourself.html#comment-285 Edward Harrison Mon, 15 Sep 2008 11:55:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/09/brace-yourself.html#comment-285 This will be the biggest day trading since after 9/11. This is a huge day for the market. We have oil down to $96, gold up 2%, treasuries up, stock futures down 360 points, the FTSE off 5%. I mean, the markets are going nuts.<br/><br/>That means some heavy selling pressure for the regionals and WaMu and AIG. We could well se another bankruptcy this week.<br/><br/>Yes, we are definitely talking real money now.<br/><br/>The question is whether the government's no-bailout of Lehman will be the thing that caused a fast liquidation and return to normal prices or a collapse and depression. I see the Treasury decision to NOT support Lehman as the pivotal event in the chain of events. This will be the biggest day trading since after 9/11. This is a huge day for the market. We have oil down to $96, gold up 2%, treasuries up, stock futures down 360 points, the FTSE off 5%. I mean, the markets are going nuts.

That means some heavy selling pressure for the regionals and WaMu and AIG. We could well se another bankruptcy this week.

Yes, we are definitely talking real money now.

The question is whether the government’s no-bailout of Lehman will be the thing that caused a fast liquidation and return to normal prices or a collapse and depression. I see the Treasury decision to NOT support Lehman as the pivotal event in the chain of events.

]]> By: dearieme http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/09/brace-yourself.html#comment-284 dearieme Mon, 15 Sep 2008 11:50:00 +0000 http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/09/brace-yourself.html#comment-284 A few bankruptcies here, a few bankruptcies there, and soon you're talking real money. A few bankruptcies here, a few bankruptcies there, and soon you’re talking real money.

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