General Musharraf, the man at the America’s side in the War on Terror who came to power in a military coup d’etat, is out. His replacement is unknown. This is further evidence that the geopolitical situation is becoming extremely volatile.
President Pervez Musharraf is expected to leave office in the next few days before Pakistan’s Parliament takes up impeachment proceedings against him, following a breakthrough in secret talks designed to ease his departure from office, people familiar with the situation say.
“Musharraf will neither face impeachment nor be prosecuted,” one person said. Mr. Musharraf is expected to step down once a guarantee of safe passage and immunity from prosecution has been struck. “We expect a major development in the next 48 hours,” this person said.
The secret talks have involved Mr. Musharraf’s aides and members of the leading political party.
While this is not the best news for the US, it at least allows Musharraf to save face and avoid a likely impeachment.
However, for the Pakistanis many questions remain. Who will replace Musharraf as President with Benazir Bhutto having been assassinated? Will the new regime allow the U.S. a free hand in the Pakistani region bordering Afghanistan? Will Russia or China attempt to exploit regime change to their own benefit? Irrespective of what happens going forward, none of the contenders to the Presidency have enough legitimacy to add stability to a region in need of it. And that alone is bad news for the US.
With Musharraf gone, the U.S. will likely have to re-assess its geopolitical aims as one pro-U.S. leader after another from Europe and Asia has fallen. In particular, given Moscow’s recent moves in Georgia, Central Asia looks vulnerable as a reliable future outpost for U.S. oil interests. The oil rich region is surrounded by China, Russia, Pakistan, and Iran, making it a treacherous place for U.S. economic interests. The former Soviet states may now find Russia a more threatening presence to the north.
In my view, this is blowback from American overreach under George W. Bush, a man who famously did not even know who Musharraf was when he was running for President in 1999. The U.S. is finding itself lonelier at a crucial time in its economic history.
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