I have developed a great deal of sympathy for Hillary Rodham Clinton (HRC) recently. It helps that I’m reading her biography right now. In the last two posts on HRC, I have argued that she is an imminently electable candidate and that she believes she is the best candidate for office. Therefore, she has every reason to stay in this race at least through June 4th. However, she has almost no chance to win the Democratic nomination. In my opinion, this has been the case for quite some time. Inevitably, she will exit this race either on June 4th, before the convention or in a fight at the convention.
As a result, the first question has to be: when should she leave the race in order to enhance the chances of a Democratic victory (if that is what HRC wants as a loyal Democrat)? But, the real question is more to style than substance: how will Hillary Rodham Clinton treat Barack Obama?
Will HRC attack Obama? Will she question his qualification for office as she has done in the past? Will she suggest his nomination is illegitimate because of Florida and Michigan? Will she campaign hard for him in the general election? And will she ask her supporters to support him in turn? How she chooses to act will have great implications for Barack Obama.
When should she get out? June 4th.
June 4th is the date that Clinton should abandon her campaign. First, objectively, Hillary has no chance of winning this one now. The die is cast. Obama is likely to get over the 50% of the pledged delegate count after Kentucky and Oregon. He cannot be stopped. Knowing this, when should Clinton abandon her campaign?
To answer that one has to put oneself in Hillary’s shoes. What incentive does Hillary Clinton have for getting out now? Hillary Clinton is going to look after Hillary Clinton; after all she is a politician. And there is zero reason for her to abandon now. She has been going at this for months, preparing in advance for years. She has built a huge database of donors and supporters. And you expect her to just close up shop from one day to the next. “Okay, that’s it. We lost. I’m done.” Well, what’s in it for her? Nothing. She is not going to abandon the race before the last primary is held on June 3rd.
Even if she were a ‘quitter’ and wanted to abandon, she has a responsibility to those that have supported her. My read of her psychological makeup is that she takes those kinds of responsibilities seriously. To just give up would be a disappointment and humiliation to the sacrifice people have made to bring her this far. Moreover, if you were Obama, you wouldn’t want her to quit now anyway because the bitterness this would engender amongst loyal Clinton supporters would be enormous and that would lead to low voter turnout in November. Bad for Barack.
Yes, I know I am suggesting she ‘go through the motions’ or ‘run the clock out’ or whatever analogy you want to make. But, hey, she is so close to the end, it doesn’t make sense not to see it through.
On the other hand, going on beyond June 4th would be entirely self-interested. Obama will certainly hit the magic 2025 by June 3rd, so going beyond the primary season could only be seen as a strategy to extract maximum personal gain in terms of a VP slot, to maximize leverage for her agenda and people, or to kneecap Obama in hopes of running in 2012. I look at a post-June 4th strategy as quite sinister and cynical.
Howard Dean and other leading Democrats recognize the power Hillary Clinton has to destroy the party if she proceeds beyond June 4th. I imagine they are looking to make sure that Obama can win significantly more than 2100 delegates in order to obviate the Michigan and Florida strategy that Clinton is STILL pushing. This would put him over the top in any scenario.
How will she treat Obama?
More important is how Hillary Clinton acts towards Obama after she does decide to exit. Gerald Ford went to his grave convinced that Ronald Reagan’s tepid support in the 1976 General Election cost him the Presidency. Clinton has the opportunity to act as spoiler in quite the same way that Reagan did. Reagan contested the nomination right to the convention. But, when it came time to give stump speeches and to join Ford on the road in order to win over what we now know to be “Reagan Democrats,’ Ronald Reagan was nowhere to be found.
Clinton’s supporters are extremely angry right now, especially after the NARAL announcement in favor of Obama. Couldn’t they have waited until primary season was over? Are they looking to humiliate Hillary Clinton? What has she done to deserve this? These are the questions loyal Clinton supporters are asking themselves right now. If Hillary pulls a Reagan this year, Obama could be in deep water come November.
Conclusion
Hillary Clinton has definitely toned down the attacks. Have you heard boo about her attacking Obama on the campaign trail? No. She is ganging up on McCain with other Dems. However, she is still pushing the Michigan and Florida issues hard. So, she is still maximizing the last leverage she has just in case. But, she has obviously realized the jig is up.
Therefore, I fully expect Hillary Clinton to exit the race for the Democratic nomination on June 4th and to back Barack Obama with conviction. Whether she eventually gets the VP slot or a Supreme Court nomination is a subject for another time.
Sources
Clinton praises McCain again, says he’s crossed ‘Commander in Chief threshold’, The Carbetbagger Report, 7 Mar 2008
Obama will reach 2025 delegates on June 3, Daily Kos, 5 May 2008
Back to Michigan and Florida, Katharine Seelye (New York Times), 7 May 2008
First Thoughts: Now Obama’s Party?, First Read-MSNBC, 15 May 2008
Fact check: Clinton vote claims under scrutiny, Calvin Woodward and David Pace (Associated Press), 15 May 2008
The Stealth Campaign to Delegitimize Obama, Daily Kos, 17 May 2008
Write it When I’m Gone, a book by Thomas DeFrank
Related posts:
