So, it’s finally over. The Democratic Pennsylvania primary has gone to Hillary Clinton. I’m sure we are all relieved to have that behind us. I know I was getting sick of hearing about it. And, quite franky, I am sick of this Presidential campaign altogether. The primary in Pennsylvania turned out much as pundits had anticipated. So, it begs the question where are we now.
Where are we now?
In my opinion, we are exactly where we were before Pennsylvania: in a Democratic contest that is fairly close but with Barack Obama clearly ahead in delegate count. It seems almost impossible for Clinton to win the nomination given his virtually insurmountable lead. Many have called for her withdrawal, as I am sure they will do again. She has virtually no chance to win, so these people wonder why she fights on.
The real question is why people vote for her. She fights on because it is her prerogative to do so and because she sees this nomination in very personal, existential terms. Her fighter instinct is commendable. However, those who vote for her have to know that they are voting for someone who cannot win. What’s more is, the win in Pennsylvania only increases the likelihood of a Democratic loss in November. So why vote for Hillary?
Voting for Hillary
The logic of the Democratic nomination goes like this:
1. George Bush has had a terrible Presidency because of the recession, the widening income gap, the lack of health care for millions, the higher cost of gas and oil, the increasing deficit, and the war in Iraq amongst many, many shortcomings.
2. As a result, America needs change. This change is unlikely to come from within the Republican party as their nominee, regardless of his personal qualities, will not be able to distance himself from the party agenda once in office.
3. Therefore, most Americans should want a Democrat in office as the only party which can institute the changes needed.
4. The Republican nominee is going to be John McCain, but he cannot distance himself from his party. He cannot represent change. He can only win if the Democrats are divided, as most Americans want change.
5. Now that it is clear that Barack Obama has a nearly insurmountable lead in the Democratic primary, the only way that the Democrats can be divided is if Hillary Clinton stays in the race AND runs a negative campaign against Obama AND she wins a significant percentage of the remaining vote. This would mean that the Democratic nominee, whether Clinton or Obama, would be seen as illegitimate by a large percentage of the Democratic primary electorate. Many of those individuals would presumably not vote or vote for McCain or a third-party candidate.
6. Hillary Clinton controls two of the three options that can derail the Democratic chances: her desire to stay in the nominating contest and the negativity of her campaign. If she stays in and doesn’t run a negative campaign, the Democratic nominee will not be knee-capped. If she leaves the race, Obama as a nominee may not be handicapped.
7. Voters control the other derailing influence in voting for Clinton. If Clinton lost by wide margins in the elections to come, Obama would be the nominee and his nomination would be legitimized. Therefore, the only reasons to vote for Hillary Clinton are three:
a. One intends to vote for Obama if he is the nominee. But one is voting now for Clinton as a protest because one urgently needs Obama to change his message or needs the Democratic party to consider specific concerns that only Hillary Clinton is now addressing
b. One never intends to vote for Obama come November. He already seems illegitimate.
c. One doesn’t really realize how much damage is being done to the eventual nominee by the long Democratic primary contest.
Maybe it doesn’t matter
Maybe it doesn’t matter, anyway. Can either Clinton or Obama win now? Seriously. So many Democratic primary voters will be disaffected by the primary result, regardless of who wins, that it seems ever more likely that McCain can and will win in November.
Maybe this is why people continue to vote for Clinton in large numbers; they know that Obama WILL be the Democratic nominee and they have no intention of voting for him. At a minimum, this is the message they are sending by voting for Clinton.
In the end, if McCain is indeed elected because of the Democrats long and nasty primary campaign, it will be steady as she goes. There will be no significant changes in domestic or foreign policy. There will be no change in Iraq, no change in the hosuing debacle policies, no change in dealing with healthcare. There will be no change in Supreme Court nominations, etc. And if this means full steam ahead into the icebergs that lie ahead, the American people will have nobody to blame but themselves. The Democrats are a divided party right now. They can’t even pick a nominee without killing each other in the process. One wonders if they deserve to win in November.
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